THE QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS FOR HEALING PROCESS OF PEPTIC ULCER BY USING MARKOV PROCESS

Abstract

For the method of quantitative analysis about the healing process of peptic ulcer, we employed the matrix analysis of Markov process regarding the transition of ulcer stage; A, H and S which are classified by Sakita & Miwa depending on the endoscopic findings.
The equation P_2n=P₀[a_ij]ⁿ was concluded according to this method. [a _ij] is the matrix of (3, 3)-type and stands for the transitional probability. P_2n is the matrix of (3, 1)-type and indicates the ratio of each ulcer's stage (A, H and S) at 2n week.
Then we applied this equation to several drug studies of H₂-receptor antagonists. There were very good coincidence between observed and theoretical ratio in each ulcer stage. And there was significant difference at H→S process depending on the kind of drug about the cumulative healing ratio of ulcer.
We also concluded that our method is more universal theory than methods up to this time included them of Gonoi & Kimura.
It is possible to estimate the healing process of peptic ulcer from the viewpoint of multivariate analysis by using the matrix expression.