Creating a potential distribution map for Greater White-fronted Geese wintering in Japan

Abstract

For species conservation, identifying factors that affect the distribution of the target species is essential. To provide basic information for the conservation of Greater White-fronted Geese in Japan, this study investigated factors associated with the distribution of the species by using data from the nationwide waterfowl survey. The geese were observed in 88 grid cells (about 10 km×10 km) in 2008–2012. The maximum entropy approach was adopted to model the distribution using presence-only data. Explanatory variables were the proportion of rice field area, urban area, and lake area; distance to lakes; and maximum snow depth. Spatial filters were also included in the model to account for spatial autocorrelation. Habitat suitability for the geese was high in areas with a high proportion of rice fields, having a certain proportion of urban area and lake area and less snow. Consequently, the suitable habitats tended to be distributed on the plains along the Sea of Japan and Pacific coasts. This study represents the first step towards habitat management and restoration of Greater White-fronted Geese in Japan.