ビジネス不確実性下における意思決定支援

シナリオ分析の方法

抄録

This paper describes the role of social simulations for decision support under business complexity. The business complexity is characterized a systems property stemming from essentially limited experiences of people such as managers. Social simulations is expected to provide decision makers, who are facing on the business complex situation, with effective ways of thinking the possibilities of options. This paper proposes the concept of landscape of the bundle of possibilities and the method of scenario analysis, and demonstrates some simulation examples. Finally we discuss the viewpoint of the role of social simulations in decision support for managers.