長期経済統計から見た21世紀の世界経済 : 1950～2100年の長期展望と経済・社会の課題(グローバル経済の地殻変動をどうとらえるか,経済理論学会第61回大会共通論題)

抄録

The substantial economic magnitude of every country in the world should be compared by GDP converted into the dollar by purchasing power parity. Then, Iillustrated the economic expansion process and fluctuation process in the main capitalist states for 165 years in 1850 to 2015 by this method. Based on such a viewpoint, Iused statistics of Angus Maddison, and statistics of IMF. Moreover, the expansion process of the world economy in 1950 to 2015 was illustrated. Based on the secular trend [shown in this figure] for 65 years, the increase process of the real average income and real economic magnitude in the "advanced nations" and the "emerging countries" by 2100 was viewed. Based on such research, Ihave judged as follows. (1)The economy of "advanced nations" goes to rapid growth→medium growth→low-growth→zero-rate economic growth (1960-2050). (2)The economy of "emerging countries" is pursuing it behind time for about 60 years by the aggregate average (2010-2100). (3)The structure of the world economy changes rapidly and it makes the growth rate decrease gradually as the whole (2000-2100). Considering the above secular trend, probably, the target in the future world (2010-2100) will be as follows. (1)Establishment of the democratic welfare society on the basis of economical richening. (2)Formation of the world system of government based on rise of emerging countries. (3)Conversion into "the society of citizen bases" from "the society of capital basis." Japan realized postwar reconstruction and high growth based on the Reform of the social system after the Second World War. In the face of many subjects, Japan had many experiences and has got the result in the meantime. Many countries which are pursuing the Japan back can refer to the experience and result. Probably, the technology and the system which Japan developed are utilizable. The Constitution of Japan is aimed at democratic welfare society in peace. It is also precious property of Japan to have maintained this firmly. If such experience and property are utilized effectively, future Japan will be able to do the big contribution for realization of better society and the better world.