脱工業化の理論と先進諸国の現実 : 構造変化と多様性(<特集>脱工業化・サービス化と現代資本主義)

抄録

One of the most important structural changes in advanced countries is a relative decline in output and employment of the manufacturing industry, which is often called "de-industrialization". This paper makes clear the meaning of "de-industrialization", based on a survey of existing researches, and shows a theoretical framework of "de-industrialization" with a macroeconomic model which takes account of industrial structural changes. Furthermore, this paper conducts a comparative analysis of de-industrialization in advances countries. In this paper, the study is developed from following perspectives. First, de-industrialization is analyzed not only as a general trend of the expanding service economy but also as structural changes in capital accumulation and the transformation of the growth regime. Second, the analysis of "growth regime" in the regulation theory focusing on interactions between output growth and productivity growth is developed by taking account of industrial structural changes. Third, the theory of de-industrialization is formalized in Input-Output Analysis, and is applied to an empirical study with a multi-sector framework. Fourth, the structural change and diversity of de-industrialization are analyzed in advanced countries such as UK, Germany, Italy and Japan by utilizing World Input-Output Database (WIOD). De-industrialization has four different forms. The first is "positive de-industrialization", which is caused by productivity differentials between the manufacturing industry and the service industry. The second is "negative de-industrialization", which is accompanied by a decline in the output of the manufacturing industry. The third is "de-industrialization by manufacturing-service linkages", which is characterized by the expansion of business-elated services. The fourth is "de-industrialization by a long-term shift in demand from the manufacturing to the services", which may occur for particular services. UK, Germany, Italy and Japan show different patterns of de-industrialization for the period, 1995-2009. In UK, "financial services" and "business-related services" grew with high productivity growth in a boom period, while the "export core manufacturing" industry often shows negative growth rates, causing "negative de-industrialization". In Germany and Japan, the "export core manufacturing" industry grew strongly with high productivity growth, causing "positive de-industrialization", and the manufacturing-service linkages are remarkably tight. In Italy, the "export core manufacturing" industry and "the other manufacturing" industry often show a negative growth rate with low productivity growth, so this causes a mild de-industrialization. De-industrialization with the expanding service economy may bring about more dualistic structures in the economy, depending on labor market segmentation and policy orientation in the economy. Therefore, faced with different patterns of de-industrialization in each economy, it is a very important research agenda how we can realize a vital economy with less inequality.