近未来におけるわが国の二酸化炭素排出量の推計とその変化要因に関する研究

抄録

In this paper, we report a projection of carbon dioxide emission of Japan using an end-use type energy model and an analysis on factors of CO₂ emission changes. The projected emission in year 2020 amounts to 378.4 MtC/a (non-Intervention case), compared with 302.2 MtC/a in year 1990 while, with an economic countermeasure to reduce the emission, it amounts to 257.5 MtC/a in year 2020 (Countermeasure case). In order to attain the countermeasure-case which requires 0.7%/a decrease of CO₂ emission, not only energy-efficiency improvement by 2.4%/a but also carbon-intensity decrease by 0.4%/a are necessary. The factor-analysis on the countermeasure-case shows the importance of both energy-efficiency improvements in residential/transport sectors and carbon-intensity decreases in residential/service sectors. With regard to a respective countermeasure, the analysis extracts some key technologies, which contribute to reduce CO₂ emission substantially and suggests that the dissemination of key technologies such as energy-efficient air-conditioners and automobiles should be promoted intensively.