Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Effects of Adaptation Policies in the Near Future on Paddy Rice Production in Asia in Consideration of Uncertainties in Climate Predictions

Abstract

Climate change impacts and the effects of adaptation policies to these impacts in the near future on paddy rice production in Asia were quantitatively assessed in comprehensive consideration of uncertainties in future climate predictions by using a large number of general circulation models with the risk assessment method. It was shown that changes in planting date and variety can reduce by 87% the risk of a production decrease for Asia. Expansion of paddy rice areas had a larger effect of risk reduction than expansion of irrigated areas for Asia and most Asian countries. Expansion of irrigated areas had a large effect of risk reduction for countries with a dry climate such as India and Pakistan. These results provide valuable information for deliberating the implementation of adaptation policies.