2007 年 23 巻 p. 141-146
To investigate some possible changes in occurrence probability of storm surge due to global warming in Ariake Sea, many numerical computations for storm surges were carried out. First, three different climate conditions were assumed in the computations, i. e., the present climate condition and two different future possible climate conditions under global warming used in Hashimoto, et. al. (2005). In each climate condition, a lot of various typhoon data for 500 years were generated with “a stochastic typhoon model” by using the Monte Carlo simulation. Next, storm surges in Ariake Sea were computed for many typhoon data. And, return periods of storm surge and tide on three climate conditions were obtained by extreme value analysis. Comparative investigation of the return periods of storm surges and tide among three climate conditions shows the possibility that large storm surge and large tide would be generated more frequently in the future due to global warming.