An Estimation of Indirect Economic Loss due to Consumer Fears of Radiation: Tokyo Metropolitan Central Wholesale Market, March 2011-February 2O12

Abstract

Since the Fukushima I nuclear power plant accident in March 2011, many consumers have avoided buying vegetables produced in and around Fukushima prefecture, although government standards regarding radioactive contamination permit only “safe” vegetables to be traded. In this study, we estimated such indirect economic loss on the vegetable market at Tokyo based on past variance of quantity and prices of vegetables (excluding fresh shiitake mushrooms and taranome/aralia sprouts) shipped from six prefectures: Fukushima, Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma, Chiba, and Saitama. The estimates show that the expectation loss over one year from March 2011 to February 2012 was 20,067 million JPY, 14.1% of the total value of sales of vegetables from the six prefectures.