論説報文
A Study on the Economic Evaluation for a Feasibility Study in Molybdenum Mineral Processing
2014 年 61 巻 1 号 p. 10-20
詳細
2014 年 61 巻 1 号 p. 10-20
In the development of mines, risk is latent in a variety of areas. Thus a feasibility study was conducted to determine certain risks. In particular, mineral processing for the recovery of a target mineral constitutes a very large percentage of the cost from the start of a project, and it is an important step in relation to the recovery of funds. In this study, a feasibility study of molybdenum mineral processing is done and comparisons are made between a pilot plant and a commercial plant using the LCCA evaluation method. At the pilot plant, the NPV value of a deterministic approach at five years is $68,984 and the probability that the NPV exceeds 0 is 58.23% according to Monte Carlo simulation done using a probabilistic approach. At the commercial plant, the NPV value with the deterministic approach at five years is –$10,820,473, and it was found that the probability of NPV according to deterministic estimation is 49.91% in a Monte Carlo simulation. As a result, the commercial plant is evaluated as experiencing a loss due to a decrease in the molybdenum concentrate price, whereas a price increase of 20% relative to the current molybdenum concentrate price can meet the margin after five years when the NPV exceeds over 0.
