Statistical Characterization of P-wave Growth for Earthquake Early Warning

Abstract

This article introduces a statistical relation between earthquake magnitude (M) and a characteristic measured from initial P-wave displacement records, which demonstrates that the final M can be inferred before the peak amplitude arrival (i.e., earthquake rupture completion) in the range of M < 7. Because it is unknown why and how the relation is established, we propose a model for explaining its physical background. We also discuss the application of the relation to earthquake early warning, which can help improve train running safety because M can be determined faster than with the conventional method while an earthquake rupture is underway.