The integrated modelling approach for land-use change projection, Case-study in DakLak, Vietnam

抄録

The magnitude and pace of human intervention on land resources has markedly increased and unpredicted, therefore, improving land-use planning is crucial task for ensuring sustainable development. Land-use change models have been developed to help land-use planner and policy makers analyze the causes, consequences and impacts land-use changes on earth’s ecosystem as well as socioeconomic system. Land-use change is a complex process, hence, there is no single model could abstract fully the interaction among a large number factors within this processes. Recently, a newer approach known as integrated models has been carried out with the promise of overcoming the limitation of single model application. In the light of that, this research aims to develop an integration methodology which integrate System Dynamic and GIS-based model for modelling the land-use change dynamic in DakLak province, Vietnam up to the year 2030. We do this by: (1) developing System Dynamic model for land-use demand prediction and (2) establishing land allocation model using ArcGIS model builder. This work aim to demonstrate the potential and bring better understanding of integrated approach and provide scientific support for land-use planning and managements in DakLak province, Vietnam.