Abstract
The purpose of this article is to explore the determinants of bilateral trade flows of wheat, rice and maize and to investigate how real GDP and climate conditions such as temperature and precipitation affect the trade. The main findings are (1) increase in real GDP of exporting countries and importing countries increase the export. Especially, the impact on the bilateral trade of wheat and maize is larger than that of rice. (2) the temperature rise in the exporting countries decreases the export of wheat but increases the export of rice and maize. (3) the temperature rise in the importing countries decreases the import of wheat, rice and maize. (4) From the results of (2) and (3), the temperature rise by 3°C is likely to decrease the export of wheat by 8.91% and of maize by 0.15% but to increase the export of rice by 1.13%. (5) increase in the precipitation in the exporting countries decreases the export of wheat and maize and decreases the export of rice, while increase in the precipitation in the importing countries decreases the export of wheat but increases the export of rice and maize. (6) As the total effect, increase in the precipitation by 10 % (97 mm/year) is likely to decrease the export of wheat by 2.25% but to increase the export of maize by 3.15% and of rice by 0.84%.
