地震に伴なう水平地殻変動の確率過程

抄録

According to the theory of plate tectonics, the earth's crust is strained by the motion of upper-mantle lithosphere. A large earthquake is thought to be a strain release . A belt-conveyer model introduced by Utsu [1] well explains the earthquake phenomena occurred in relation to the motion of lithospheric plate. Assuming that the timely variation in horizontal strain is expressed by a Markovprocess, the associated equations are derived. The results of Mogi's rock fracture experiments [2] are applied to the hazard rate of earthquake occurrence .