An Ice Accretion Forecasting System (IAFS) for Power Transmission Lines Using Numerical Weather Prediction

Abstract

Power transmission networks are exposed to meteorological conditions that can often cause damage resulting in temporary loss of service. Because their reliability is of crucial importance to society, the ability to predict potential hazards in advance is of great interest. Studies conducted by the power transmission industry indicate that the majority of failures is caused by icing on overhead conductors and other components of power networks. This paper outlines an ice accretion forecasting system (IAFS) that uses a state-of-the-art, mesoscale, numerical weather prediction model, augmented by a precipitation type classifier, and an ice accretion model. The system is calibrated by hindcasting a well-documented freezing rain event in the United States, in December, 2002. Results indicate that IAFS can hindcast overall ice thicknesses as well as icing models can diagnose them using observed surface meteorological conditions.