論文ID: 2022-035
Ensemble future climate projections were performed using the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2.0 (MRI-ESM2.0) for sand and dust storms (SDS), which have a significant social, economic, and climatic impact on East Asia. A past replication experiment using MRI-ESM2.0 reproduced the decreasing trend of SDS in the Gobi Desert in the early 21st century. Prediction experiments by MRI_ESM2.0 in CMIP6 future scenarios indicated no significant differences in the total amount of SDS emissions in the Gobi Desert for 2015-2100; however, SDS emissions increased with warmer scenarios in spring and autumn. In particular, March in the highest warming scenario (SSP5-8.5) exhibited an annual increase rate in SDS emissions of 3.0% for 2015-2100. Friction velocity was the factor most highly correlated with SDS emissions, with a correlation generally higher than 0.6 for all climate scenarios throughout the year. In spring and autumn, snow cover exhibited a low negative correlation with SDS emissions, while ground temperature exhibited a positive correlation. The increase in SDS emissions and subsequent dust transport by midlatitude westerlies in spring and autumn in the accelerated warming scenarios is likely due to the changes in friction velocity and erodibility due to the decrease in snow accumulation.
