2014 年 58 巻 3 号 p. 35-51,128
This paper explains Japanese politics in the post-1955 system using the theory of mass politics (Kornhauser 1959). Since the prior theory of class politics does not adequately explain the Japanese situation in the post-1955 system, many scholars have focused on the theory of populism, which does not regard voters as an important aspect. In contrast, the theory of mass politics consists of two aspects that are connected by public opinion: available politicians and accessible voters. The former is synonymous with the concept of populism, and the latter concerns those who are socially and politically marginalized.
This paper focuses on the breakthrough of the Toru Hashimoto camp in Osaka as a model case for Japanese politics in the post-1955 system. Voting behavior in the Osaka mayoral election of November 27, 2011, is analyzed using a social survey on political attitudes and civic participation in Osaka City. Path analysis is used to examine the model, which is based on the theory of mass politics. The results are as follows: (1) CFI and RMSEA values show the validity of the analytical model; (2) voters who are socially and politically marginalized voted for Hashimoto because of their distrust of public officials; (3) voters who are not socially and politically marginalized voted for Hashimoto because they favored the competitive principles of the market (neo-liberalism); and (4) there are no indirect effects of voters’ socio-economic status on voting behavior. Therefore, mass politics modified by both accessible and non-accessible voters is confirmed. Based on these results, a framework can be presented for analyzing Japanese politics in the post-1955system.