立地変化を考慮した応用一般均衡モデルによる道路整備の便益評価
—— 道央都市圏を対象とした実証分析 ——

抄録

Highway construction projects in practice are evaluated by measuring user benefits based on a cost benefit manual. Recently, the measurement of indirect effects that revitalize industry by freight efficiency or relocation effects of new industries is requested to add direct effects such as user benefits. However indirect effects may be canceled out through market mechanisms, so it is important to avoid double count and calculate the net benefits. We built a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to considered long term interactions of transport and location changes to evaluate the relocation effects brought by transport projects. Application of the CGE model can strictly evaluate the cancelation of effects and exclude the double count of benefits. In addition, we can evaluate relocation effects of new industries because the model is able to consider relocation impacts by transport projects. In this paper, we apply the benefits evaluation model to the Radial and Ring Road Projects of Sapporo City and execute an actual analysis.
The numerical results clarified that the Radial Road affects the central area, and the Ring Road affects not only the central area but also the suburban area. In detail, benefits, household and firm location distribution, commodity consumption and production, rate of price reduction and other factors were obtained. Based on the benefit evaluation, the Ring Road Project may bring more benefits than the Radial Road Project.

JEL Classification: R13, R14, R42