抄録
In these years, decrease in population aggravates the financial situations of municipality. Special Municipality Mergers Law deadline passed, then incentive of the merger was considerably reduced from the viewpoint of fiscal effect. Additionally, a merger plans in Hokkaido prefecture is not mostly achieved to get around increase inhabitant burden risk entailed in area increase of municipality. A quantitative effect analysis of the merger is required from the aspect of sustainable development and municipality management.
In this study newly proposed an analysis framework and model for quantitative effect of municipality merger from view point of ‘public finance’ and ‘public service’, and applied to an effect analysis for municipality merger in Hokkaido prefecture which has a lot of municipality and large area. The aim of this paper is that get a useful suggestion for merger negotiation in the future.
A dataset on municipal employment cost and budget expenditure in after merger municipality are computed from a forecasting model which explanatory variable set out a population in after merger municipality. Additionally, a debasement of public service level for inhabitant is taken account of access environment aggravation with an increase in municipality area. Especially, in this study newly proposed an Access-Total Service Score (A-TSS) that is composed of integration index of public service and access burden for inhabitant.
A quantitative effect of municipality merger is analyzed based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model by using the above-mentioned datasets, from the viewpoint of ‘public finance’ and ‘public service’. The effect values are derived from a variation of efficiency scores. Then this study newly proposed Merger Beneficial Degree (MBD) that is computed based on deviation score graph using public finance effect and public service effect in those merger plans.
From MBD results, it is revealed that beneficial merger plans in Hokkaido prefecture are in a minority for the reason of serious public service reduction deep associated with explosion access burden for inhabitant.
JEL Classification: R12, R51, R53, R59
