過去の地震・津波の経験にもとづいた被災地経済復興計画立案の分析方法に関する研究

抄録

The Pacific Coast Tohoku Earthquake with a Magnitude of 9.0 (named by the Japan Meteorological Agency) and hypocenter at Sanriku-oki occurred on March 11, 2011. The scale and affected range greatly exceeded the assumptions of the government and common sense of the people. In a catastrophic and wide-range multiple disaster, the amount of direct economic damage is strongly influenced by differences in features of each self-governing body such as composition of local economies, composite degree of disasters such as tsunami earthquakes, and characteristics and strengths of various disasters. Moreover, disasters are different, so countermeasures and their effects also differ. When considering reconstruction of stricken areas faced with repetitive tsunami risks, it is necessary to take into consideration influences stemming from differences in local features and disaster characteristics to grasp economic damage (both from direct and indirect damages) quickly and correctly. Also to reconstruct the sustainability of the local economy in stricken areas, reconstruction plans must consider both sides of the advantages for a compact city and mitigated economic damage against an earthquake disaster.
An econometric approach to estimate the economic damage attains a correct estimation of economic damage, but requires time and expenses for conducting large-scale investigations and totaling the vast quantity of data. Moreover, such an approach cannot divide the amount of economic damage by natural disaster type, so economic damage for every disaster cannot be acquired. Considering the points above, to form a proper reconstruction plan, an analysis method for reconstruction planning that considers estimation techniques for the amount of economic damage caused by the next expected earthquake and tsunami, and the amount of mitigated economic loss by countermeasures must be established.
Prior to announcement of the detailed disaster data for the Tohoku Earthquake, we analyzed and compared data on economic damage, reconstruction plans, and reconstruction processes of 15 earthquakes (including 3 tsunami earthquakes) since 1960. In particular, we analyzed features of the amount of direct economic damages by a tsunami. Then using the data of the Chilean Earthquake Tsunami that influenced Japan with a tsunami but not an earthquake in 1960 the study proposed a continuity compensation formula whose influential factors were the tsunami height and the relationship between the amount of direct economic damage by the tsunami and the financial resources of the people. Moreover, we proposed a method for analysis of reconstruction planning that makes use of a formula to estimate the amount of direct economic damage, and conducted a basic study toward evaluating the effects of reconstruction plans after the Tohoku Earthquake.

JEL Classification: C53, H12, R15