個別地域計量経済モデルと地域経済データの開発(東北地域を例として)

抄録

After the oil crisis in 1973, a great discrepancy in growth rate has occured between regional and national economy in Japan. One of the major causes of this regional economic change is the expansion of the growth rate difference between material and mechine industries, which was yielded by the recent national economic trends.
Therefore, in case of building a regional econometric model, it is also important to consider the dependence of regional economy upon national economic factors, especially upon the trends of manufactures.
The purpose of this paper is to construct a regional econometric model, where manufactures play a key role, depending upon national economic trends. The model is applied to data for three regions of Tohoku district in period 1970-1982. The development of CRIEPI Regional Econometric Model for Tohoku District is the second case-study of this type model buililding after the construction of Chugoku Regional Econometric Model-verision I-.
This paper consists of three parts. In the first part, the structure of the model is studied. In the second part, the usage of regional economic statistics is studied from the viewpoint of this type model building. In the third part, after checking the fitness of the model, impact tests are performed under the assumption of 10 percent change of local government fixed capital formation in 1971, in comparison with the actual level. The results are summarized in table 1.