路線・便数・機材ならびに為替レートの影響を考慮した国際航空旅客需要予測に関する基礎的研究

抄録

In proportion to the increasing demand of aerial transport, the countermeasures such as a foundation of new routes, an increase of flights to each route, an introduction of large-size aircrafts have been usually proposed to cope with it. All of these countermeasures bring an additional supply of seating capacity respectively. The effects of the correlation between increasing demand and increased seating capacity have not been taken into consideration explicitly in traditional forecast models for aerial transport demand.
This study analyzes the effects of these three countermeasures on aerial transport demand respectively at Nagoya International Airport which is located in Nagoya Metropolital Area, where there is a growing tendency to construct an another big-scale international airport. It becomes clear that the foundation of new routes takes its effect no longer than one and half years but that an increase of flights keeps up its effect for many years.
Then an effective forecast model, where the effects of those three countermeasures mentioned above are taken into consideration, is proposed for a project to develop the existing Nagoya International Airport.
Based on the present tendency that the value of Japanese yen becomes higher and higher, the correlation between exchange rates and aerial transport demand is also examined for the inetrnational passengers at existing Nagoya International Airport by using Multiregression Analysis.
Finally an algorithm to modify a forecasted demand value derived from any traditional demand model is proposed by considering the effects of the countermeasures taken up in this study.