地域における交通問題

グローバル・メッツ・モデル(Global METS Model)による実験:中間報告

抄録

The purpose of our research is to formulate an econometric model with which we can analyze the effects of increase in social overhead capital on regional and interregional economic activities. We are especially interested in the transport system with four means of transportation, i.e., railway, road, marine and air transportation. Government investments in transport facilities play a crucial role in a development of national economy, since regional pattern and timing of transport investments can affect the pace of economic development. This means that we have to take into account of the interdependence between transport system and regional economy when we formulate the regional model. Our model is constructed along this line.
Though the idea of our model is originally based on METS model by J. R. Meyer, we have made modifications of it and introduced several new ideas. So, we call our model Global METS model.
Main characteristics of our model can be summarized as follows:
a) “Economic distant variables” are introduced in the model. These variables are defined in seven stages, and express changes in time and flow of transportation caused by the increase in transport facilities.
b) “Potential product” is defined in each regional industry. We introduced potential production function to show the effects of transport investment on regional economy. The economic distant variables are used as factors of production in this potential production function.
c) The determination of traffic assignment is based on the theory of portfolio selection. There are four means of transportation in our model, as we mentioned above. Our method for the estimation of traffic assignment is based on the transporter's choice which is regarded as similar to the portfolio choice.
We are now estimating parameters in our model.