地域学研究
Online ISSN : 1880-6465
Print ISSN : 0287-6256
ISSN-L : 0287-6256
環境制約下における最適交通投資
中国についてのシミュレーション
李 斌氷鉋 揚四郎
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ジャーナル フリー

2000 年 31 巻 3 号 p. 63-77

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Transport investments result in expansion of interregional trade, acceleration of economic activities and people benefit from that. But as the transport system becomes developed and diversified, it brings about traffic pollution (e. g., noise and exhaust gas from cars) and the environment deteriorates by the constructions of transport infrastructures.
Now, similar to the industrialized countries, the necessity of “the harmony of development and environmental protection” is being recognized in the developing countries. With the development of economy, people in Asian countries are also becoming aware of the problems quickly. However, the consciousness is not necessarily reflected in the policies.
The situation is the same in China. In order to solve the serious transport problems in the western region of China, “National Tenth Five-year Construction Plan” has been presented. According to this plan, transportation investment is a key policy variable. As the transport system plays an important role in the production process, the plan will have immense impact on the regional structure of China. The economy of China will develop by the plan but it is also predicted that it will bring about industrial and city pollutions. Finding out the way to harmonize optimally, both the economic effect and environmental influence of the plan by implementing environmental policies is the objective of this research.
In this paper, the whole area of China is divided into seven zones and a China type multi-regional multi-sectional social economic model is built. In the present social environment and economy of China, the changes in economic growth up to the 21st century under harsher measures for the amount of discharge of contaminants of CO, SOx and NOx are analyzed, and the pattern by which traffic industry develops is predicted. Also, an optimum solution which leads to efficient regional development is calculated by considering both comprehensive environmental evaluation and economical development. Specially, the change in the regional economy of western part of China, which has become a topic now, due to the expansion of the transportation system by infrastructure investment is analyzed. The effect on economy in each area due to the improvement of the comprehensive transportation network, and the nature of influence on the environment are considered. Moreover, the influence on economic growth under the environmental regulation is analyzed.

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