In the near future, we will accept the aging society and a decline in population, so it's necessary to survey a change in the population structure because the social system in Japan depends on age structure. And considering that local decentralization proceeds, we have to investigate not only population for Japan but also those for regions.
In this paper, basing in Nagoya City that belongs to three major metropolitan areas (Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya major metropolitan areas) and is supposed to contribute to local activations, we analyze the inter-regional migration that is the most important factor especially in changes of regional population.
The construction of this paper is as the following. In section 2, we introduce actual migration data in Nagoya City and migration factors that Nagoya City Government Office presented. In section 3, we explain migration model called gravity model, and choose dependent variables in migration modeling. In this paper, we examine Nagoya City migration dividing in three areas, the surrounding area (means Aichi prefecture), metropolitan area except Aichi prefecture and non-metropolitan area except Aichi prefecture, and we use panel data for 1981-99. In section 4, we show the results of the regression analysis. Further, we divide the estimation period into three, before thebubble period (1981-86), on the bubble period (1987-91) and after the bubble period (1992-99), and we compare a coefficient of land price in each period that is supposed to be the most effective factor in Nagoya City migration. And we dictate future subjects in last section.
