緊急時対応のための長距離大気拡散計算による放出源推定手法の開発

抄録

This paper describes a method of estimating source term, i.e., location, period and amount of atmospheric release of radioactive material in real-time during nuclear emergency. This method consists of: (1) trial simulations of atmospheric dispersions on the possible combinations of these parameters and (2) statistical comparison of model predictions with offsite measurements of air concentrations of radionuclides and/or air dose rates from monitoring stations, to find a set of release condition providing model prediction that fits best to the measurement. A parallel execution method for efficiently processing many possible initial conditions is also developed. The performance of this method is favorably evaluated by a verification study using the dataset from European Tracer Experiment.