地域性を考慮した広域災害避難シミュレーションのためのマルチエージェントモデル

抄録

In this paper, we propose a multiagent model for wide-area disaster-evacuation simulations with local factorsconsidered. Conventional multiagent models for evacuation simulations neither allow general-purpose computers to executewide-area simulations nor allow the object area to be changed easily. If these problems are solved, however, these simulations can be useful for local governments to make disaster damage prevention plan. In the proposed model, each roadis expressed by a series of cells. A computational amount relevant to interaction among agents is reduced by describing themodel for agents to be affected by other agents through the state of each cell. This makes possible wide area simulations. Using the data of a digital map database that is widely used for car navigation systems enables the simulations to beperformed for any region in Japan. Local factors are reflected in simulations by setting some parameters for evacuees, anevacuation environment, and disaster damage prevention plan of the object area. As an evaluation experiment, wesimulated the situations of Kobe city on the date of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. Simulations results about thepercentage of evacuees who arrived at refuges were in good agreement with the actual data when parameters forevacuation-start timing were adjusted. We also simulated the current situations of two cities, Kobe and Tsukuba, and confirmed that this model was successfully applied to the two cities. From these evaluation experiments, we believe thatthis model can be applied to various areas and will perform further experiments in the future.