2014 年 80 巻 820 号 p. TEP0366
In this study, we analyze the supply-demand balance in a power system for the year 2030, utilizing an optimal power generation mix model in which the increased amount of renewable energy, high-efficiency thermal power generation, and constraint conditions that reflect realistic operation in a thermal power plant have been successfully incorporated. Our results indicate that the introduction of high-efficiency thermal power generation is capable of yielding a substantial reduction in both the annual costs involved in power generation and the annual amount of CO2 emissions. Moreover, the impact of high penetration of renewable energy on power supply operation is investigated in detail by estimating the daily capacity variation for frequency control at an interval of 15 min. Depending on the season and the weather conditions, our analysis detects that much of the time there is a capacity shortage for frequency control, which implies that high penetration of renewable energy could lead to severe integrity reduction in power operation. Finally, we discuss practical strategies for power supply operation toward resolving this capacity shortage with a particular focus on the resulting economic loss.
