2015 年 81 巻 821 号 p. 14-00250
Fuel cell cogeneration is one of promising energy-saving technologies in pursuit of a sustainable society. However, it is unpredictable how many fuel cell cogeneration systems will be diffused since there are many future uncertainties, such as people's lifestyles and national energy policies. As an approach to tackling with this problem, this paper proposes a method for describing scenarios to analyze the diffusion of residential energy systems, such as fuel cell cogeneration systems. We develop a simulation model for estimating the diffusion of residential energy systems, in which conjoint analysis is undertaken to analyze consumers' preferences. In a case study, several scenarios are described for analyzing the diffusion of solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) cogeneration systems for apartment houses, where the region of interest is Kansai Area, Japan from 2013-2030. The described scenarios differ in terms of nuclear energy policies. The results show that the number of fuel cell cogeneration systems in 2030 reaches 147-157 thousands depending on the share of nuclear power. In addition, it is revealed that monthly utility cost has a much larger impact on SOFC diffusion than CO2 emissions. Future work includes further what-if analyses of the scenarios to identify factors that would give a significant influence on SOFC diffusion.