外部環境要因の不確実性を定量化した事業価値評価の支援手法

抄録

This research addresses an evaluation method of business value considering risk-hedging options from the first stage of the product development. A scenario planning method is introduced into the estimating method of the business value in order to identify uncertain factors, which affect to the business value. Generally, the scenario planning method has a weak point that it is difficult to apply its result into the project plan, because the specified factors are relatively qualitative. Proposed uncertainty analysis organizes the qualitative factors into four types of stochastic distributions. By combining the risk-hedge options and probabilistic distributions, a decision tree diagram, which contains the numerical estimated values about product development project, is calculated. The decision tree diagram describes project's EPV (Expected Present Value), so that the best combination of options is derived. The proposed method is applied to the i-Painter development project, which is automatic repairing robot of the buildings as an example. Two risks about future technological change in painting mechanics and flooding around factory are identified, calculated, and compared. The application result shows that the proposed method can surely help the development member to specify the economical external element change. In addition, the result indicates that the best business value is estimated and best risk hedge option can be calculated.