2009 年 61 巻 Supplement 号 p. 347-355
Discovery of small repeating earthquakes and development of rate- and state-dependent friction laws have brought a modification of the asperity model that was originally proposed by Kanamori’s group. In the modified asperity model, ‘asperity’ is a synonym of ‘seismic patch’on the plate boundary. The area other than asperities on the boundary is supposed to slip aseismically. Careful analyses of interplate large earthquakes also support the model. This model gives a basis of current long-term earthquake prediction. Further detailed analyses of the relation between the pore pressure and rupture process and the interaction among the asperities and aseismic areas are mandatory for the improvement in the accuracy of the prediction.