1948年福井地震の強震動

ハイブリッド法による広周期帯域強震動の再現

抄録

We simulate strong ground motions during the 1948 Fukui earthquake with the JMA magnitude 7.1 based on a heterogeneous source model and the hybrid simulation technique. So far there are no existing source models available for simulating strong ground motions from the 1948 Fukui earthquake. Most of the source models have been assumed to have uniform slip distribution on rectangular fault plane. Such models could generate ground motions only available longer than several seconds, underestimating shorter period motions (<1sec) of engineering interest. The objective of this paper is to construct a heterogeneous source model for simulating strong ground motions in a broad period band during the 1948 Fukui earthquake. We assume two source models to examine: Model 1 is a reverse fault model determined from the analysis of geodetic data by YOSHIOKA (1974) and Model 2 is a normal fault model from strong motion displacement data by KIKUCHI et al. (1999). Heterogeneous slip distribution on fault plane is estimated based on the self-similar scaling relationships of seismic moment versus asperity areas and slips by Somerville et al. (1999). Then we obtained the standardized source model consisting of two asperities to have the average characteristics of asperities for the seismic moment of the Fukui earthquake. Relative locations and rupture times of the asperities on the fault plane are determined following the source model by KIKUCHI et al. (1999). The maximum asperity corresponding to the second event in their model has an area of 12×12km² and slip of 1.7m and is located under the most heavily damaged area along the buried fault, known as the Fukui earthquake fault. The smaller asperity corresponding to the first event is located north of the maximum asperity. Rupture was initiated at the northern edge of the smaller asperity, propagated toward south, then broke to start the maximum asperity 7 seconds after the initial rupture. Large ground motions from both models, Model 1 and 2, are spread over the Fukui basin, although peak velocity distributions are rather different between the two models. Areas over 30% collapse ratio during the Fukui earthquake correspond to those with peak velocity over 60cm/s for Model 1 and over 80cm/s for Model 2. The level of the peak velocity in the areas with more than 30% collapse ratio are estimated to be over 80cm/s connected with both results by MOROI et al. (1998) and MIYAKOSHI and HAYASHI (1998). Pseudo velocity response spectra in the center of the Fukui basin for Model 2 have almost the same level of the observed ones at Takatori (TKT) and the simulated ones at Fukuike (FKI) within the damage belt during the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. We conclude that the damage distribution during the Fukui earthquake is well explained by strong ground motions simulated for Model 2 combined with the normal fault model by KIKUCHI et al.. (1999) and a standardized heterogeneous source model developed by SOMERVILLE et al. (1999).