2000 年 52 巻 4 号 p. 445-468
The Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line (ISTL) in central Japan is a complex 150km-long fault system consisting of north-trending east-dipping reverse, northwest-trending left-lateral strike-slip, and north-trending west-dipping reverse faults. To help to resolve segmentation and to estimate the magnitude of future shocks on the ISTL, we conducted four trench excavations across the Hakushu fault, the Shimotsuburai fault, and the Ichinose fault group in the southern part of the ISTL, where no paleoseismological data for the surface faulting had been available. On the trench walls at the Hakushu fault, we found the evidence for the most recent surface-rupturing event occurring sometime between 6, 650 and 7, 000cal. y. B. P. (BC 4700-BC 5050) with approximately one meter of coseismic slip. On the Shimotsuburai fault, we exposed evidence for three events at two trench sites. The low-angle thrust faults and associated sediments record the most recent and the penultimate events occurring between 1, 370 and 2, 500cal. y. B. P. (AD 580-BC 550), and between 7, 940 and 8, 430cal. y. B. P. (BC 5990-BC 6480), respectively. Vertically offset terrace gravels indicate the dip-slip rate of the Shimotsuburai fault to be about 0.5mm/yr during the past 22, 000 years. We also found evidence for the most recent two surface-faulting events on the scarp of the frontal fault of the Ichinose fault group. The most recent event, which accompanied a coseismic slip of 1.8-2.2m, is inferred to have occurred sometime between 3, 990 and 6, 270cal. y. B. P. (BC 2040-BC 4320). The penultimate event, which appears to have a coseismic slip of 2.1-3.0m, is constrained to have occurred between 9, 520cal. y. B. P. (BC 7570) and 10, 930y. B. P. The recurrence time and slip rate are roughly estimated as 5, 000 years and 0.5mm/yr, respectively. Regarding the long elapsed time since the most recent events, the Hakushu fault and the Ichinose fault group have accumulated enough strain to produce surface-rupturing earthquakes today. Based on such long recurrence times and lower slip rates on the southern ISTL relative to the central ISTL, we suggest that multiple segment ruptures of the central and southern ISTL are unlikely to have occurred during the past 10, 000years. However, partial synchronization of rupture timings for the central and southern ISTL might have occurred around 7, 000y. B. P. though. To evaluate the fault activity in the southern ISTL more precisely and to consider fault interaction with central ISTL, we still need to investigate other fault strands of the southern ISTL, and to gather more paleoseismic evidence.