The subject of this paper is to make clear the characteristics of long-term change and variability of agroclimatic resources influencing crop production. Meteorological data of about 50 stations over the northern hemisphere of the earth were used to study the long-term change, latitude distribution and variability of the sum of daily mean temperature during the period with daily mean above 10°C (sum of effective temperature, Σ
T10°C) which is a most important element of agroclimatic resources. The results obtained can be summarized as follows.
1. The time traces presented in Figure 1 reveal a systematic fluctuation of Σ
T10°C, although there is some difference in the amplitude and the phase among stations. The Arkhangelsk curve shows that the during the last quarter of the 19th century and the first one tenth of the 20th century the value of Σ
T10°C was lower than the overall average by about 200°C day, followed by a net increase of about 400°C day between the 1910's and the 1940's. Since then it has decreased to date. A quite similar trend can be also seen at other stations with the exception of Lagos (Nigeria) near the equator. It is very interesting to note that the difference between lower and higher extremes of Σ
T10°C is approximately independent of the latitude and reaches about 400°C day.
A more detailed analysis of the time fluctuation of Σ
T10°C was made by using correlogram and spectrum analysis methods. As shown in Figure 2, the two types of the correlogram become clearly distinguishable, one type is characterized by the drastic decrease of correlation coefficient with increasing the lag time and mainly predominant in latitudes higher than 30°
N. The other type of the correlogram has a relatively high and long tail and is mainly observed in the tropical or subtropical zone. Figure 3 illustrates the results of power spectrum analysis. At Arkhangelsk, period lengths of about 60 and 2 years are prominent. The former seems to correspond roughly to a large fluctuation with the period of about 70 years as recognized on Figure 1. It is characteristic in the tropical and subtropical zones that fluctuations in a higher frequency range above 0.1 cycles year
-1 and fluctuations in a lower frequency range below 0.1 cycles year
-1 both contribute approximately evenly to the variance of Σ
T10°C.
2. The normals of Σ
T10°C (‹Σ
T10°C›) and of the duration of effective period (‹
D10°C›) both show a slight change near the equator. Poleward of latitude 25°
N these quantities decrease rapidly with latitude and become zero at about 70°
N. The latitude distributions of the both quantities were approximately expressed by Eq. (3). As Figure 4 shows, the latitude dependence of ‹Σ
T10°C› is quite similar to that for the annual mean air temperature (‹
Ta›), and the following relation is obtained between them
‹ΣT
10°C›=1538 exp (0.073‹T
a›).
This may be useful for evaluating the value of ‹Σ
T10°C› from the data of ‹
Ta›. Poleward of 25°
N, the value of correlation coefficient between ‹Σ
T10°C› and ‹
D10°C› increases rapidly with latitude.
3. The value of coefficient of variance (
C. VΣT) characterizing the magnitude of yearly variation of Σ
T10°C increases rapidly with latitude. The value of
C. VΣT at a higher latitude is about ten times as larg
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