In the previous reports, we proposed the index of climatic productivity,
Yp, which gives the potential productivity in paddy rice under a given climatic condition and a given technical level in cultivation. This index was judged to be proper as the climatic productivity index from the fact that the high production regions of more than 550kg/10a always kept the
Yp values at greater than 780kg/10a. In the present report, we examined the correlation between the year to year variation of
Yp and the actual yield,
Y, in each region, and further studied the probability of yield prediction in each region by means of modifying
Yp.
First, the year to year variations of the
Yp index at the mean heading date,
Ypm, and the mean yield,
Y, in each region were compared for 1965 through 1978 (Fig. 2). The correlation coefficients between
Ypm and
Y, r (
Ypm:Y), were higher than 0.6 in 8 regions out of total 36 regions. The mean temperatures during ripening period in the 8 regions were about 22°C or lower. These regions were located in Hokkaido, a cold district, and in northern parts of Tohoku and Kyushu where rice plants were cultivated during the optimum ripening period. In the regions in which the early varieties were planted and their ripening periods were warmer than 22°C, the correlation coefficients were very small in general.
Next, θ
o which had been defined as the optimum temperature during the ripening period in the
Yp equation was assumed as a parameter variable in each region. Then, the correlation coefficients
r (
Ypm:Y) were calculated for the various θ
o. It was found that the θ
o value having maximum
r (
Ypm:Y) was different in each region, as shown in Fig. 4. Thus, the following relations were introduced into the
Yp equation: (i) parameterization of θ
o, and (ii) inclusion of the stagnation model (Fig. 5) in the rising tendency of yield by the advance of cultivation techniques. This new model was found to be more useful for the yield prediction (Fig. 7).
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