経営史学

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General trading companies (GTCs) were a key component of Japanese industrialization and economic growth in the late 19th and early 20th century, which required the overseas trade of goods, services, money, and human resources. Previous studies about GTCs during this era revealed that their growth was associated with overall Japanese economic growth and that they required both risk taking and risk management, although many previous studies did not consider the quantification of risk, which enables the comparison of individual GTCs. This study measures the market risk of Mitsui Bussan (Mitsui) and Furukawa Shoji (Furukawa) between 1918 and 1920 using the value-at-risk methodology (VaR), which is a statistical risk measurement tool currently used by many firms, including GTCs. Mitsui eased its market risk control operations in 1918 and found that the gross market risk position (Mikoshi) was almost double the internally approved limit in 1919. Furukawa Zaibatsu (the business group founded by Ichibei Furukawa) established Furukawa in 1917, and Furukawa’s Dalian branch increased its market risk exponentially by means of rogue trade in 1919 and 1920. After this risk taking, Mitsui succeeded in reducing its market position to a more prudent level in 1920 by implementing several risk management strategies. Conversely, Furukawa kept increasing the trade in the branch until 1920. Consequently, as the largest GTC before World War II, Mitsui remained a going concern, and Furukawa was assimilated into Furukawa Kogyo in 1921.

VaR showed that Mitsui’s peak risk in 1919 was half of its net worth, while that of Furukawa in 1920 was greater than its net worth. This result suggests that their differences in risk management determined these companies’ life and death. Other measurements of GTC risk (i.e., credit risk and investment risk) will be my next research topics to establish a more comprehensive view of GTC risk.

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