The return periods of the late frost damage of the clone Yabukita and other early of late clones were estimated on the basis of the bud opening date of the clones investigated at Makurazaki branch and of the results obtaind from the crop situation experiments of tea which were carried out in various tea areas in Japan.
1. The maximum range of variation in bud opening date of leading clones was regarded as about 25 days. It was recognized that the bud opening date of each clone was its inherent character, consequently, the order of earliness for bud opening and for plucking was scarsely influenced by years and places except for the forst damage occurring to buds or shoots in spring.
2. An index of the risk with respect to the late forst damage of a clone was represented as a value of (A-B) days by subtructing the average date of bud opening of the clone at a place (B) from the average date of the latest frost at the place (A).
The risk of the frost damage of the clone Yabukita in the crop situation experiments was considerably large, because the date of bud opening of this clone was very close to the date of the latest frost.
Highly significant correlation (r=0.96) was confirmed between the risk index value (A-B) and the damage of late frost at the experimental spots. The risk index, therefore, is useful in determining the dangerous area of late frost for tea plants.
3. An exponential regression formula was made up from the return period of Yabukita on tha above risk index (A-B) at various sites of the situation experiment. The formula obtained is given as follows :
y:3.49e
-0.0086xy:return period (year)
x:index of risk (A-B, day).
4. It was shown that return periods for each of the clones of early or late bud opening could be estimated using the above formula exchanged the index of risk (A-B) for the days expressing the relative earliness or lateness of bud opening of tea clones.
5. Recently, frequency of the occurrence of frost damage is increasing at tea garden in Japan. The auther pointed out, in regard to the above fact, that the frost damage at the tea garden of the clones, such as early clone Yabukita, increased over 1.8-2.4 times as compared with the tea garden of domestic seedlings.
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