The objectives of this study were to examine the effects of genetic selection differential (GSD) and generation interval (GI) that affect actual genetic gain per year and to predict genetic changes in the future for milk production of Hokkaido Holstein cows and progeny test bulls in Japan. The data for estimation of breeding values consisted of 305-d (240-d) records of Holstein cows that produced milk with 2 times milking from 1976 through 2001. The data included 5,012,423 records of 1,687,142 cows for milk and fat yields, and 3,574,169 records of 1,306,174 cows for protein yield. A single trait animal model with repeated records for prediction of breeding values included herd-year-parity subclass as fixed management group effects, age and month of calving within each birth year group as fixed effects, linear regression on inbreeding, random permanent environment effects of cows, random additive genetic effects of animals, and random residual effects. The GI was calculated as an interval of the birth dates between progeny and its parent and was expressed in years. The GSD was estimated as the difference between estimated breeding value (EBV) of a parent and mean EBV of cows which were contemporary with the parent. Then, GI and GSD were averaged on each birth year of progeny for four paths of selection : sires of bulls (SB), dams of bulls (DB), sires of cows (SC), and dams of cows (DC). Genetic standard deviations (σ
Gm, σ
Gf and σ
Gp) for milk, fat and protein yields were estimated based on the assumption that the accuracy of selection (square root of reliability) is equal to the correlation of predicted and true breeding values. The GI for SB and DB paths decreased steadily over the years and had dropped to 7.78 and 4.95yr in the last four years (1993 through 1996), respectively. The GI for SC and DC paths were 7.98 and 4.49yr in the last four years (1995 through 1998), respectively. The GSD for SB and DB paths were 2.19σ
Gm and 1.69σ
Gm for milk yield, 2.28σ
Gf and 1.85σ
Gf for fat yield, and 2.95σ
Gp and 2.14σ
Gp for protein yield in the last four years (1993 through 1996), respectively. The GSD of protein yield for SB and DB paths increased dramatically from 1985. The GSD of SB and DB paths for imported bulls taken into progeny test was higher than domestic produced bulls in the 1980’s, the difference of GSD between both bulls decreased in the 1990’s. The GSD for the SC path in the last four years (1995 through 1998) were 1.57σ
Gm for milk yield, 2.40σ
Gf for fat yield, and 2.18σ
Gp for protein yield. The GSD in DC path had no large changes and were below 0.10 σ
G for all traits. The annual genetic gain expected in the future for protein yield (0.30σ
Gp/yr) was greater than for fat and milk yields by +0.03σ
Gf/yr and +0.08σ
Gm/yr, respectively. Those expected annual genetic gains correspond to 157% for milk, 193% for fat, and 167% for protein with higher genetic progress than the actual genetic changes per year in the last four years. However, because indications of the possibility that selection on traits other than milk production have been intensified in the cow population of Hokkaido region, it was predicted that the actual genetic changes for milk production is smaller than the expected genetic changes.
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