Road accidents are considered as the results of a complex interplay between road, vehicle, environments, and human factors. Little study, however, has been carried out on the attributes of human factors compared to the road geometric conditions and traffic conditions. The previous researches focused on mainly both traffic and geometric conditions on specific location. Therefore, it's hard to explain phenomenon of the high traffic accident rates where road and traffic conditions are good. Because of these reasons, accident analysis has contributed on geometric improvement and has not contributed on traffic management such as selection of attention section, driver napping alert, etc. The freeway incident management is also associated with reliable prediction of incident occurrences on freeway sections. This paper presents a method for estimating the effect of trip length on freeway accident rate. A PAR (Potential Accident Ratio), the new concept of accident analysis, considering TLFDs (Trip Length Frequency Distributions) is suggested in this paper. This approach can help to strengthen freeway management and to reduce the likelihood of accidents.

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Traffic accidents are a leading cause of deaths in Thailand. Over the last three years, some 13,000 human lives have been lost annually as a result of road accidents. Losses in terms of economic, social and public health costs have risen over 100 billion baht (US$2,500) during the period (Police Lieutenant Colonel Dr. Thaksin Shinawatra Thai Prime Minister, WHO 2004). Traffic accidents can be viewed as a chain of events involving the failure of one or more of the following factors: the road user, the vehicle and the road. Research on traffic accidents in the USA and United Kingdom has shown that one of the significant factors causing road crashes was vehicle defects; this factor contributes 12% and 8% respectively to motor accidents in the two countries (Ogden 1996). The statistics for Thailand showed that vehicle defects accounted for some 27.54% of road accidents (OCMLT 2002). In view of the foregoing findings, inspecting vehicles to guard against vehicle defects can be an effective and proactive measure to help prevent road crashes. This study describes the result of an evaluation of vehicle inspection effectiveness in Thailand. The study aims to identify ways of improving the vehicle inspection process currently in use in the country.

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There have various ways of assessing the cost and impact of road traffic casualties. Willingness to pay and Gross output are the two methods, which are usually used to estimate the value of safety. The purpose of this study is to propose a method to estimate the best figure for valuing the slight motorcycle casualty. To find the best figure, this study looks at evaluation of gross output and willingness to pay methods for costing slight motorcycle casualty in Surabaya, Indonesia, where the number of motorcycles has grown by an average of 6.25% yearly and correspond growth of with the casualties especially those with slight injury. In order to obtain a real value that reflects the economic burden of the casualty, a questionnaire survey has been undertaken. The results of both methods have been analyze and compared.

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For an effective design of crash cushion, understanding vehicle motion during impact and mechanical properties of the cushion is essential. In this paper, structural parameters affecting on the occupant safety have been identified and studied using 2-DOF System model describing vehicle crash against cushion with various mechanical properties. From the study two design equations have been developed, which can be used for the design of any crash cushion system with design conditions of 1.3ton vehicle head-on impact with 60km/h and 80km/h impact speeds.

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This paper presents an empirical example to demonstrate that how profoundly the temporal variation of the policy effect can affect the results of measuring the safety effect of an intervention policy by using different lengths of study periods. The potential fallacies of applying the pair-t test, causal factor analysis model with dummy specification, and causal factor analysis model with time-based specification to measure the policy effect by using different prior and post implementation periods are demonstrated. The policy of criminal sanction for drunk driving in Taipei City is used as an empirical example. The results indicate the different choice of the lengths of the prior and post implementation periods would obtain the different sizes of the policy effect. Finally, the findings provide a set of valuable information for policy evaluation and alert the analysts to interpret their evaluation results carefully to avoid making an inappropriate conclusion.

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In order to explore function of curve design, road information and driving conditions (season, and time of day), this study investigates driver's judgment on curve sharpness and driving behavior. The field study with an experimental group of 105 drivers has been conducted at 16 curves on a mountain highway, with employing 3 types of road information; non-treatment (actual roadway setting), advance curve-warning sign placed on the roadway, and roadway signing combined with curve-guidance through an in-car navigation system. The study then finds that information provision has a positive effect on driver's judgment on pre-curve sharpness under any road conditions, especially when the curve radiuses are less than 100 meters. On the other hand, however, several negative effects are found on driving performance of summer-daytime, particularly with roadway signing combined with curve-guidance through the in-car navigation system

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This paper presents the development of an advanced tool to facilitate accident datacollection and analysis processes. An integration of three technologies: hand-held computers, GPS and GIS is proposed with objectives to replace cumbersome primitive processes, to make accident data-collection and analysis more standardized, less error-prone and, therefore, more efficient. Under a proposed concept, the hand-held computers would play a major role in recording non-spatial data, while a main function of GPS is a spatial data collector. GIS would be a versatile database management tool for other tasks including data retrieval, data analysis, and information distribution. In order to demonstrate the proposed concept, the EMS data system in Khon Kaen City, Thailand, was selected as a case study. The development is potentially useful as it can offer a means to facilitate EMS data collection as well as explore the new dimension for EMS data analysis.

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Along with alcohol and fatigue, speed has been identified in Australia as one of the biggest contributors to road traffic accidents. Over time, changing enforcement techniques and technology has been applied with some degree of success in rural and urban areas. From 1997, the speed limits on residential roads were slowly changed from the default 60km/h to 50km/h. By 2003, all but one of the jurisdictions had adopted the new lower speed limit. Although only applying to residential roads and not major roads, considerable crash benefits have been reported. Reductions in the order of 20% in casualty crashes have been observed and in particular, significant benefits appear to exist for vulnerable road users such as pedestrians. This paper discusses some of the research observations surrounding the adoption of the lower speed limit in Australia and discusses the link between overall vehicle speeds and crash frequency based on international literature.

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Many highway agencies have been using Geographic Information System (GIS) for analyzing accident data. Identification of problematic locations is one of the most important aspects in accident studies. The GIS based application combines the information collection capabilities with the visualization. The GIS and Road Accident View System are a set of applications developed for managing accident database entries. The developed system was designed based on the Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM) community area and may be adapted very easily to any other places. The system was developed using Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0 in Windows XP platform. The database was designed in term of textual format. The Accident Report from UPM security unit used as the source for information needed in the database development. The location of the accident was recorded on a map. And by indication on it, the user can perform queries on a particular condition to get the number of accidents.

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In the city area in Japan, about 50% of the traffic accident in a non-trunk road is a crossing-crash accident in a non-signal intersection. For this reason, prevention of the crossing-crash accident in a non-signal intersection is important in a city area. However, the research which analyzed the structural feature of the intersection which a crossing-crash accident tends to happen or are easy to occur frequently is not seen. So, in this research, the relevance of the occurrence condition of a crossing-crash accident and some intersectional structural features is analyzed for the non-signal intersection in a city area. The characteristics considered to influence a passing behavior as an intersection feature, such as intersectional size and passing regulation, were used.

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A model and a measure that can evaluate the risk of rear end collision are developed considering actual driver's behaviors. These behaviors are analyzed on the basis of three concepts - risk, responded risk, and accident - related to accidents. An index that can represent the risk was also developed based on the methods used in evaluating noise level. For risk comparison among various situations, the equivalent risk level with respect to the intensity and duration time is developed. The model was validated with field surveys of the expressway of Seoul using a test vehicle capable of collecting the traffic flow data. Based on these data, the risk by section, lane, and traffic flow conditions was evaluated and compared with the accident data and traffic conditions. The results showed that evaluated risk level corresponds closely to the patterns of actual traffic conditions and number of accident.

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Road accidents are global problems facing all countries with motorized forms of transport and are on the increase in many developing countries including Thailand. The 2004 World Health Organization's report indicates that in 2003 worldwide, an estimated 1.2 million people were killed in road crashes and as many as 50 millions were injured. Projections indicate that these figures will increase by about 65% over the next 20 years unless there is new commitment for prevention. Road accidents cost countries between one and three percent of annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and road traffic accidents would emerge as the 3^rd leading cause of disease or injury burden in 2020 from its 9^th ranking in 1990 (WHO 2004). The latest road accident statistics from the Office of Thai National Police show that 91,623 accidents occurred in 2003 resulting in 13,209 deaths. Bus accident is a major public concern in Thailand as they often involve the lives of innocent victims. This paper describes characteristics and causes of bus crashes in Thailand. During the past 4 years (1997-2000), 3,000 bus accidents occurred on highways resulting in about 1,500 deaths. More than 50% of these crashes were single bus accidents with overturning being the most common mode. The main contributing factor was errant bus drivers (82.3%) with over speeding (71.9%) being the number 1 cause. Three cases of fatal bus crashes were investigated. The results showed that the 3 contributing elements: drivers' errors, vehicle integrity and defects, and roadside hazards combined to lead to the crashes and their severe consequences. Based on the findings of the investigations, 3 remedial measures to prevent bus crashes and reduce their subsequent impacts were recommended: 1) control of drivers' competency and behaviours 2) improving vehicle safety 3) safety management of roadside hazards.

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Motorcycles have been the most popular transportation mode in Taiwan. However, each year over 1,000 people lost their life in motorcycle accidents. The high accident risk and high risk of severe injury associated with motorcycle riding have not drawn considerable attention until a few years ago. In order to reduce the number of injuries and fatalities in motorcycle accidents, traffic authorities adopted the mandatory helmet use law on June 1, 1997. One-year motorcycle accident data were collected to analyze the injury severity and helmet use characteristics and also to evaluate the effectiveness of the mandatory helmet use law. These analyses were done by applying logit modeling approach and before-and-after comparisons. The estimation results of logit models uncover important relationship between various risk factors and injury severity and identify a broad range of factors influencing motorcycle helmet use. The before and after comparisons further show that effort to reduce motorcycle casualties by adopting mandatory helmet use law is justified.

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This research explores the impact of inflated variances on statistical significance and identification of variables correlated with median crossover accident frequencies. In roadway and accident data that is comprised of cross-sectional panels, serial-correlation effects across time arise due to shared unobserved effects through random error terms. We use an empirical technique to adjust for downward bias in standard errors in count models of traffic accidents, so that proper identification of variables is ensured. The identified model structures reflect the impact of inflated significance values, and provide specifications that include truly significant geometric, traffic and environmental effects contributing to median crossover accidents. It should be noted that the results from this study are localized and hence limited to inferences from the median crossover context in Washington State in the United States. Further study is required to ensure the transferability of these findings to other contexts.

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Highway-rail grade crossing accidents result in severe crashes with trains and other vehicles every year and, account for approximately 60 percent of all grade crossing fatalities. Despite the number of highway-rail grade crossing accidents, quantification of the effect of possible countermeasures has been surprisingly limited due to the absence of data needed to rigorously analyze factors affecting the frequency of highway-rail grade crossing accidents. This study provides some initial insight into this important problem including a detailed database on roadway geometric and grade crossing elements to analyze highway-rail grade crossing accidents on one hundred individual grade crossings in Korea. Zero-inflated models of accident frequency are developed and the findings isolate a wide range of factors that significantly influence the highway-rail grade crossing accident frequency. The marginal effects of these factors are computed to provide an indication on the effectiveness of potential countermeasures. The findings show promise for the methodological approach undertaken and provide important directions for future railroad research.

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The objective of this paper is developing an accident prediction model at fourlegged signalized intersections in Seoul City to control random and local characteristics of accident. The first step is to classify and analyze the factors of accidents, and construct raw accidents data as an ordinal category. This step is able to make the structure of accidents data to include random characteristic, and the next step is to make a prediction model using GLIM (Generalized Log-linear models) including the error system having the negativebinomial distribution. Then, EB method (The Empirical Bayesian method) using the cross and time series data of subject elements is supplemented to the basic model, in order to correct the global prediction results. In this paper, the total 145 intersections in 156 intersections in Seoul are used, 80 for calibration and 65 for validation, and 11 intersections are abandoned because of short on data.

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Road traffic accidents are the tragic artificial disease which more than thousands of people injured and dead each year. The Thai government has alert and implemented 5-E strategy to tackle the problems. However, owing to the inaccurate road accident statistics and the inefficient data collection method on causation and collision particularly, on potential and existing black spots, these are major obstacles to improve road safety. This paper investigates the possibility to introduce Hiyari-Hatto method to identify and collect data on existing and potential black spot locations. 200 local peoples who live in Soi Chokchai 4 and Soi Ladprao 39 communities in Bangkok were participated in the interview survey. The findings indicated Hiyari-Hatto method is a significant alternative method for public participatory enhancement to develop black spot database nationwide.

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We examined the use of rumble strips on a national highway as a measure against head-on collisions. The rumble strips were installed on a test track before installation on a road in service. Studies were conducted on the necessary construction machinery, the construction methods, and the effects of installation on a road in service. In addition, we examined the use of rumble strips as a measure against run-off-the-road accidents. The strips were found to be less costly, and easier to install and maintain than traditional measures against head-on collisions. They were found to be safer for motorcycles than are center poles and chatter bars, and effective in reducing head-on collisions.

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This research focuses on examining the interacting relationship between vehicle crashes and road engineering factors. The back-propagation artificial neural network (BPN) method with feed-forward structure is used to develop the model. Each intersection is decomposed into several approach sets to establish the proposed microscopic relationship with vehicle crashes. A total of 1,225 records at 69 primary/secondary intersections in Tainan, Taiwan, were used to calibrate the bi-level models of 11 crash types. First is a distinguish model to tell if an approach set will have crash; the second is a prediction model to forecast crash numbers by type for each approach set. Error rates for all distinguish models are under 15% with an average of 6.1%. Error rates for all prediction models are under 25% with an average of 6.7%. An overall RMS is 0.1617. Practical field test also proves model's validity.

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The economic prospects of a region are highly related to both production efficiency in industrial composition and the standard of living. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of social environment on regional population and the number of establishments as an indicator of regional vitality, based on dimensions of industrial technologies, communication expenditures and subjective utility. Empirical results, obtained by using panel data for 47 prefectures of Japan at 4 points of time during 1988 and 1999, show that variations in population and the number of establishments are significantly explained by social environment factors considering both of production and consumption facets.

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Metropolitan areas in the developing world face a pressing need for policy tools to evaluate urban development strategies. This need, placed within the context of fiscal restraint, sustainable development, and public administrative regimes, has kindled an interest in the use of “integrated urban models” (IUM) that explicitly consider urban transportation and land use interactions. While the development and use of these models has helped science to better understand urban processes, they can only be useful to society as a whole if used to inform policy making and analysis. The objective of this paper is to put into perspective the necessary conditions for the formulation of an IUM useful for policy and planning in developing countries taking the case of Metro Manila. The paper frames the steps needed for development and application of a model of this type in the area.

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There is disequilibrium between supply and demand, since a building stock has high irreversibility, while a locator is comparatively easy to move. However, the process of floor disequilibrium generation is not yet sufficiently clarified. The aim of this study is to develop a lot-based land-use micro-simulation model, which can represent disequilibrium between floor supply and activity's demand. A lot-based building distribution is represented as a result of annual lot merging, building demolition, and building construction, and activity's location is described by a disaggregate logit model based on floor utilities. Floor disequilibrium is represented as a difference of their distribution. After the basic structure of the model, detailed model equations are described, and the outline of the analysis system for detailed land-use micro-simulation based on GIS is shown. For the purpose of empirical study the detailed lot-based database is developed in Sendai city, Japan.

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The urban development of green-field areas requires an assessment against economic, social and environmental sustainability objectives of which vehicle-kilometers of travel (VKT) and journey to work patterns by automobile is one important criterion. Current practice in Australia on travel demand forecasting applies strategic land-use and spatial interaction models calibrated for the whole of the metropolitan area to the proposed urban release area to estimate future VKT, among other travel indicators. This will give misleading results for spatial patterns of traffic in these release areas as demonstrated by previous research. A case study of Canberra, the Australia's national capital, is being investigated to assess whether there is a case or not for a variation to the long-term metropolitan structure policy (linear development structure of the Y-Plan) using both the traditional gravity model and the intervening opportunities model with location-specific preference functions.

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The present study is a part of continued development of discrete choice models for location analysis. The discrete choice modeling paradigm, and in particular the logit model, are research topics that have been continuously developed and refined for years in the field of transportation applications. Modeling locational choices, on the other hand, differs from modeling transportation choices in that geographically referenced data is used, whereby the choices are specifically spatial. The utility function of the proposed model is specified with autoregressive expressions for the deterministic and error components, and the model is evaluated with reference to three alternative models: the standard logit model, a logit model with an autoregressive deterministic term, and the mixed logit model with autoregressive error terms. The methodological development was reported in the previous paper. The present study investigates the applicability of those models in terms of zone and area unit system and this paper reports the results. It is found that the relative distance between zones is the major effect to determine the applicability of the proposed model. In the other word, the model shows an improved performance over the three reference models when the choices exhibit relative difference in distance between zones.

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A concept of sustainability has become a paradigm in urban development and there is also a belief that the sustainability could be achieved by compact development. Although there are many representation of compactness such as high density city, a mixed-used city, or transit oriented development, most of the discussions are only descriptive. This paper presents a quantitative analysis scheme that takes into accounts long range of time over generations of the residents. This approach of analysis has made the sustainability and compact city be discussed more clearly and effectively. The analysis is based on the empirical result of TRANUS Sapporo model. The simulation framework of decreased population in the later year is assumed based on the real population trend in Japan. It is found that the city will be sprawled if no appropriate policy measure is taken, but the city will become more compact and sustainable when combinations of appropriate policy measures are taken. The sustainability is evaluated from several aspects: as land-use, transportation, environmental, and, most importantly, financial viewpoints which consider the development cost.

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Population aging and population decline, coupled with a saturation of the Japanese economy and declining revenue for infrastructure maintenance, pose particular problems in outer suburban areas. A new planning philosophy based on planned-retreat and planned re-concentration is described. To evaluate and identify those areas suitable to apply this planning system a decision support system is being constructed. This paper introduces the theory underpinning this research and development into the social value of residential locations. It explains the optimization model structure based on the quality adjusted life years concept and its associated components of accessibility to land uses, residential amenity and risk of hazardous factors such as earthquakes, floods and road traffic noise and emissions (livability). Economic, equity and global environmental constraints are factored into the model. An approximate model for practical applications is formulated and its data requirements relevant to the urban planning process are outlined.

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There is strong trend for suburban clustered employment growth in many large cities. However, such a polycentric employment growth is quite complicated and subject to many factors. Empirical research mostly focuses American cities. Therefore it is necessary to analyze different cities with different specific characteristics to provide a better explanation of polycentrism. This paper analyzes the metropolis of Turkey, Istanbul, by using available data between 1985 and 1997. Employment centers are defined and a methodology explained to classify clusters of employment centers using rank-size distributions. The dynamics of each center are examined. The impacts of multi-centers on commuting patterns and the spatial extent of labor sheds are also discussed for each type of sub-center. The location policies of the Istanbul Metropolitan Area Sub-Region Master Plan are described and the stated outcomes of the plan for 2010 are assessed based on evidence from historical changes in employment location.

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In this paper, a CUE model to find optimal policy package and optimal population distribution is developed by expanding a CUE model by Mutou and Ueda (2000) into social surplus maximization model. The social surplus function is defined by household's EV (equivalent variation), vehicle's CO₂ emission cost, and capital gain due to land rent change. Then a calculation method for solving the maximization problem is developed by modifying Fowkes's method (1998), which can be applied to the other mathematical problems with equilibrium constraints (MPEC). Finally, the model is applied in Nagoya metropolitan area, and optimal policy of income subsidy and optimal population distribution are found.

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In this paper, the optimal timing of investment, defined as the time at which the net benefit of the project is maximized, from the public and private perspectives are derived. Because of the differing views of these sectors, public and private optimal timing may not coincide, thus creating an optimal timing gap. However, coordination between these sectors is important considering the increasing convergence for more private sector participation in providing public goods such as transportation and to achieve maximum social benefits even under this condition. Policies used in developing countries for encouraging private sector participation are examined for effectiveness in narrowing this timing gap. These include tax holiday, increased debt ratio, longer loan repayment period, special interest rate used in the computation of the loan annual amortization, and lump-sum financial subsidy. Criteria for perfect synchronization as well as acceptability of lump-sum financial subsidy are formulated.

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The Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) network design problem often involves three parties: the government, private sectors, and road users. Each of the parties has different objectives that often conflict with each other. This study develops the optimal pricing model for each party's perspective under travel demand uncertainty. Numerical studies are provided to illustrate the tradeoff among different objectives and the effects of regulation and policy on the BOT project. Regulation and policy are normally imposed by the government to ensure the BOT project satisfy certain requirements. The impact of imposing regulation and policy on profit, social welfare, spatial equity, and financial performance of a BOT project are explored using a case study of the Ban Pong-Kanchanaburi Motorway (BKM) in Thailand.

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Private financing of road projects in developing countries has considerably declined in recent years. Currency crisis have led several projects to fail and increase risk levels of potential projects. For attracting private investments in risky projects, governments have offered incentives and support measures. Government must assure themselves and convince the general public that support measures given are not excessive. This could be possible by using a transparent, open and quantitative method for evaluating/assessing the risks. This paper reviews methods and techniques used for assessing the risk in private finance projects. A value-for-money (VFM) methodology used in the UK is presented. It was identified that the main shortcoming of the VFM method is surprisingly the lack of transparency towards the general public. This paper indicates some considerations before taking into account the application of the VFM method in developing countries, and proposes a VFM risk assessment methodological approach for developing countries.

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An unresolved puzzle in the economics literature is the co-existence of share, fixed-wage, and rental contracts in the organization of similar economic activities. Our analysis of transportation markets in this paper finds that the choice of contract type between owners and drivers of modes of transport depends on risk aversion, the costs of monitoring, access to capital markets, and constraints determined by the level of development and other characteristics of the region and passenger population. Clinical examination of the pattern of driver contracts for minibus firms in the Philippines and Hong Kong supports the conclusion that these general factors and other constraints jointly determine the choice of contract that is consistent with an efficient assignment of drivers and passengers to alternative transportation firms.

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This paper explores the optimal road pricing policy when a new elevated road is constructed in a corridor that suffers from traffic congestion before the elevated road is built. Due to the extra construction/maintenance expenditure for this new elevated road and the need to lessen congestion situation, the government decides to apply a road-pricing mechanism on the transportation system. Three pricing policies are discussed in this paper: (a) charging the travelers who live after the entrance of the new elevated road by a flat toll; (b) charging the travelers who live after the entrance of the new elevated road but the new elevated road users and original road users would pay different toll; and (c) charging all the travelers with different congestion toll depending on which path they use. The numerical result shows the existence of the social optimal corresponding toll. The best pricing policy among these three alternatives is also discussed.

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This paper aims to analyze empirically the impact of selecting travel demand forecast techniques on estimation of user's benefit stemming from transportation investment. Three techniques are discussed in the paper: the multinominal logit (MNL), user equilibrium (UE) and all-or-nothing (AON). These three techniques are compared in the empirical analysis of the urban railway project in Tokyo based on the same data set. Consequently, it is found that the user's benefit estimated by the MNL is largest, whereas the benefit by the UE is smaller than the benefit estimated by the MNL by about 10 % and the benefit estimated by the AON is smaller than the MNL by about 20%. Finally, some policy implications related to choosing the travel demand forecast techniques in transportation planning are discussed.

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In transport project evaluation, the impacts can be viewed from various aspects. So there is always a conflict of analysis in regard with the impacts of the project. From some aspects point of view, the impacts are often difficult to be valued in monetary terms. These conditions make the application of monetary evaluation such Cost-Benefit Analysis alone often inadequate for transport evaluation. These limitations have led to the development of non-monetary evaluation method known as multicriteria analysis. The use of multicriteria analysis in transportation project evaluation enable decision maker to express his/her view in decision making process. It could also encourage public involvement in the evaluation. The main challenge of multicriteria analysis application is how to determine criteria weights. Different decision maker is likely to give different weight on a criterion. Thus, criteria weights determination in turn could be time consuming and costly. This paper introduces a multicriteria analysis method, called proportion method that is suitable to be applied in developing countries.

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The construction cost is usually calculated based on the unit price analysis using three major coefficients for materials, equipment and labor. Among the three, the labor cost is more difficult to obtain where uncertainty is occurred due to the lack of performance standardization. This paper describes a study with the purpose to acquire an approach model in estimating labor coefficient where the uncertainty is applied. The study is conducted to labor involved in the industry and based on length of work experience that influences labor performance. Reference of labor coefficient is gathered from the National Standard of Indonesia (NSI) and is examined toward the range of coefficient from the data. The correlation and equation between length of work experience and labor performance are computed. By doing so, testing NSI on average time obtained form the study, regression analysis output and its equation could be used as the correlation between length experience and manpower productivity. This productivity is a transformation of the coefficient in unit price analysis.

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In a road project, there are various risks in each project stage. From the viewpoint of project management, it is essential to qualitatively analyze the risks and conduct the risk management. However, in reality, the data for the analysis is usually very limited in the countries and areas in Eastern Asia. The aim of the present study is to conduct quantitative risk analysis based on real data in road projects in Japan and discuss the risk management. Based on the obtained data, the frequency and the impact of each event are analyzed and summarized in a risk ranking matrix. In addition, arrow diagrams are built to represent the sequence of project steps. By translating the arrow diagrams to Monte Carlo simulation system, some model projects are simulated. The simulation results show several important implications such as management strategy based on the possibility of each pass to become the bottle neck.

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Recently, developing countries have gradually been achieving economic development, at the cost of regional income disparity between urban and rural areas. One factor contributing to this is excess of transport infrastructure investment in central area and concomitant inefficiency of inter-regional trade due to high transport costs. In these countries, decision making on project implementation should be based not only on social efficiency from a macro point of view but also on the micro-economic effects felt by every region and every household. A spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model, which uses Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) with two regions and two household-income levels as the database, is built to estimate the benefit of each region and household level from traffic infrastructure investment. Results show that traffic infrastructure investment in urban centers causes negative benefit in rural areas and induces further widening of the regional income gap.

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Public transit systems have been a promising solution for the congestion and environmental problems of most urban areas around the world. Because it can reduce the negative effects of traffic jams and pollution caused by private vehicles, public transit systems have played an important role in development of sustainable environment in urban areas. Although public transit systems can reduce external cost efficiently, the externality of public transit system has not been sufficiently included in the existing models for public transit planning. This study aims to analyze optimal headway and length for the public transit system (i.e., urban rail) in a transportation corridor under the consideration of externality. A minimum total system cost objective is developed in a mathematical model considering insensitive and many-to-one demand pattern. The total system cost is composed of the operator costs, the user costs, and the external cost. The operator cost includes train operation costs, terminal operation costs, and terminal construction costs. The user cost includes the wait cost, the access lost and the in-vehicle cost. The external cost, which is evaluated according to the Green GNP account, includes fuel consumption cost, air pollution cost, and accident lost. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the applicability of the mathematical model developed. It is shown that under the consideration of externality, both the optimal length and the optimal headway should be longer than those generated by the conventional modeling process in which the externality is ignored. However, it is also shown that in some situations the optimal solutions have no significant differences, whether considering the externality or not.

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“Sustainable Development” is generally discussed on three dimensions: social equity, economical efficiency, and environmental preservation, however, social equity is seldom discussed before. Since a transportation sector may generate some negative effects on these three and intercity transportation has some special characteristics, the sustainable development of intercity transportation becomes an important issue.
The purpose of this study is to develop indicators to evaluate the sustainable development of intercity transportation in social equity aspect. The indicators are generated by an issue-based framework and screened by the examination of functional overlap, the weights, and data availability. The fuzzy inference method is used to integrate the evaluation indicators to show the comprehensive and realizable evaluation results.

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To manage complex urbanizations, various advanced planning techniques have been developed. A last effort is the planning supporting system (PSS). This study intends to develop Integrated Zonal Impact Analysis (IZIA) System in Bangkapi District, Bangkok, by integrating land-use databases, transportation models, travel time and vehicle operating cost models, noise and air pollution models. Three unique characteristics are established: the zonal impact analysis framework, the impact interrelations in communities' viewpoints, and the community involvements in mitigating impacts. The system consists of four functions: problem and alternative identifications, impact assessments, impact integrations under public preferences, and information displays. As the results, most stakeholders prioritized pollutions (0.64) higher than travel costs (0.34). Therefore, planners should seriously consider the pollution problems. With the minimum impact costs, a shopping center project should be allocated into the radial network center. For two projects, they should be implemented beside the expressways. The proposed IZIA system was a successful preliminary application.

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The success of transportation is partly a derived effect of the fulfilling of all sorts of needs, varying from economic needs to social needs. The success is also the result of continuous technological innovations. At the same time, the success creates significant negative external effects. Thus, there is a need for a sustainable transport policy that pays attention to the balance between needs and sustainability requirements. So, as transport is the result of a derived demand, it is also needed that there is a better understanding of the societal, economic, and technological trends that will influence the transport patterns and their implication for policy making. This paper presents an inventory of the trends, places these trends in a policy context, and comes forward with recommendations for sustainable policy making for the transport sector in the future. The emphasis will be mainly on experiences in Western Europe. The transferability is briefly discussed.

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The aim of this study is to analyse the importance of accessibility (within the inner-city and from the residential suburbs into the inner-city) and attractiveness as two determinants for shopping and leisure time activities in the central city of Christchurch. The context is derived from consideration of divergent exogenous factors associated with selected cities in Germany and from the change of attitudes towards shopping and leisure time activities in modern societies.

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Recently, we have been facing serious concerns related to rapid aging and a very low birthrate in Japan, and it is widely known that the population will start to decrease rapidly after its peak in 2006. Migration is one of the most fundamental and important problems in national land planning. The aim of this study is to clarify the influence of development of transportation facilities and the existence of historical trunk roads on migration. In order to achieve this aim, a migration model between regions presented by the regional difference in utility and degree of relationship between regions was constructed. This model was applied to the analysis of migration in Japan. The estimation result of the model was found to be satisfactory. It was clarified that variables representing the condition of transportation facilities have a major effect on migration and accuracy of the model is improved by these variables.

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This paper discusses the use of accessibility measures to create and evaluate urban planning policies aimed at improving the accessibility of individuals to work opportunities. The measures were developed from a behavioural-based framework that determines the benefit or need for an individual or group of people to travel to an activity. The accessibility measures will show that despite one fifth of the labour force market of metropolitan Adelaide residing in the neighbouring areas of Salisbury and Tea Tree Gully, residents in these areas have among the lowest levels of accessibility to work opportunities. A policy aimed at improving the number of work opportunities in and around theses areas will be evaluated using measures of accessibility. Further research and recommendations to improve the capability of accessibility for use as a tool by policy makers will also be discussed.

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Degrading condition of urban mobility in developing countries is an important policy issue. The rapid trend of motorization is likely to make the situation further worse. In particular, the declining trend of modal share of public transport in the cities of developing countries manifests a multidimensional problem. Though international patterns and policy experiences offer valuable insights for policy makers, the complex dynamics of urban transport system often resists intuitive policy alternatives. In this paper, a dynamic hypothesis in the form of feedback relationship is proposed and a System Dynamics model is formulated to experiment some of commonly discussed policy alternatives. The simulation result reveals that introduction of off-road rapid transit system is important not only to maintain or regain the modal share of public transport but also to improve road traffic congestion. However, rapid transit system developed too late may bring only limited impact primarily due to unfavorable land-use condition.

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The railway sector is in most countries in a period of transition. Governments hope, by simulating regulatory reforms of the sector, to revitalisation railway in order to go through this phase. This paper aims to analyse the innovative capacity of the railway industry, and give a special emphasis to the development of rolling stock. A carefully executed innovation management process needs to take place within a number of boundary conditions. These conditions form no ‘hard’ stipulations to be imposed on the specific factors or on the specific capabilities of an innovation, but they are directed at supplying as much clarity as possible during the execution of the complete managerial process. The conditions are derived from the various views that exist concerning the network approach in general, but are confined, given the demands of the technology area. The article concludes that the role of the Research and Technology Development (RTD) policy can contribute to the general objectives of the railway industry.

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An obvious limitation of discussions concerning the expressway system is the subjectivity and one-sidedness. In line with this, there is a need for an objective, quantitative and comprehensive design methodology for an expressway system. Thus, this research developed a methodological tool (CESDA) for policy-set design from multi-perspective viewpoints that would be practical and applicable to real-world and large-scale problems. Initially, a comprehensive logical system of factors and variables on expressway system design, with consideration on the various viewpoints of different stakeholders in the system, were wholly constructed. A practically applicable mathematical model and system design analyzer was then developed using a tri-level model structure. An algorithm, which can deal with large-scale expressway policy-set design problems was proposed and verified. To verify its applicability, the expressway system of Japan was used as a case study. The optimal set of expressway expansion projects in the Construction Plan was obtained and discussed.

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In this study, we examined the application of Quality Function Deployment (QFD) to the evaluation of government services in view of the customers' perspective. We studied winter road maintenance services of the City of Sapporo as an example of QFD application to road maintenance, a public service. Using a descriptive questionnaire, we identified the items of dissatisfaction among road users and quantified their importance. We show QFD, which is based on the philosophy of designing a product by converting market needs into the technical aspects required for the product to meet those needs, to be highly useful for such evaluation.

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The sole employment pattern of national vessels has been broken in Taiwan, and seafaring diversity, called mixed seafarers, has also emerged, following the pattern of traditional maritime nations. The authors hypothesized that there would be a negative impact on Taiwanese seafarers' psychological and behavioral attachment to working of a team. This study was carried out from the perception of Taiwanese seafaring officers. Data was collected through questionnaires from seafaring officers who participated in the shore-based promotional training in Taiwan on April 26-31, 2004. An empirical analysis based on a hierarchical regression model was conducted. Results revealed that seafaring diversity has a significant negative effect on Taiwanese seafaring officers' job satisfaction. The study, however, reveals no significant impact to officers' organizational commitment or intent to turnover. The authors consider that the industry-specific nature of seafaring officers is the possible explanation.

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