We construct a macro-econometric model in which social security system, particularly social medical insurance system, is explained in detail. The model, estimated by the OLS method over the sample period 1955-1970 (fiscal year), contains 61 endogenous variables and 67 exogenous variables. The final test shows that the explanatory effectiveness of the model is tolerably good for the actual course of the Japanese economy over the sample period.
Dynamic simulations of the model show the following results: (i)
A 10 percent increase in fee point of medical treatment gives rise to a slight fall in real GNP, an increase in the deficit of social insurance balances, and practically no change in the GNP deflator and consumer price index. (ii)
A ten (10) percent increase in contribution in social medical insurance improves the net balance of social insurance, while it leads to a fall in real and nominal GNP and practically no change in the GNP deflator and consumer price index.
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