We investigated the old seismograms of several earthquakes which occurred offshore of Miyagi prefecture in 1933 (June 18, 21:37 UT), 1936 (Nov. 2, 20:45 UT), 1937 (July 26, 19:56 UT), 1978 (June 12, 08:14 UT), and 2005 (Aug. 16, 02:46 UT). A characteristic earthquake model for the sequence of the 1936, 1978, and several other earlier events is the basis of the recent forecast by the Earthquake Research Committee (2003) that “The probability of the occurrence of another similar earthquake in the next 30 years is 99%”. To assess the validity of the characteristic earthquake model, we compared the waveforms, size and other characteristics of these earthquakes recorded at Pasadena, DeBilt, Abuyama, Aso, Weston, Strasbourg, and Christchurch. We conclude that (1) The 1978 event is 3 to 4.5 times larger (in seismic moment) than the 2005 event; (2) The 1936 and the 2005 events are about the same size and are fairly close in location; (3) The 1937 event is smaller than the 1936 event, and is significantly deeper, possibly as deep as 90 km. In contrast, the 1933 event is significantly shallower than the 1936 event. The differences between these events are too large to justify the use of a simple characteristic earthquake model for the probabilistic forecast. The seismic slip rate in this area and along the adjacent subduction zone to the south is about 1/4 of the plate convergence rate, which has an important implication for the long-term seismic hazard in this area.

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The preliminary hypocenter distribution of the 2005 Off Miyagi Prefecture earthquake and its aftershocks is estimated using data from five ocean bottom and six onshore seismic stations located around the rupture area of the earthquake. The epicenter of the mainshock is relocated at 38.17°N, 142.18°E, and the focal depth is estimated to be 37.5 km. The aftershocks surrounding the mainshock hypocenter form several clusters that are concentrated along a distinct landward dipping plane corresponding to the plate boundary imaged by the previous seismic experiment. The strike and dip angles of the plane agree well with those of the focal mechanism solution of the mainshock. The size of the plane is about 20×25 km² in the strike and dip directions, which is similar to that of the large coseismic slip area. The up-dip end of the planar distribution of the aftershocks corresponds to the bending point of the subducting oceanic plate, suggesting that the geometry of the plate boundary affects the spatial extent of the asperity of the 2005 earthquake.

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A large earthquake (M7.2) occurred along the plate boundary offMiyagi Prefecture (Miyagi-Oki), northeastern Japan, on August 16, 2005. In this area, large earthquakes (-M7.5) have occurred repeatedly at intervals of about 37 years, and more than 27 years have passed since the last event occurred. To estimate the relationship between this earthquake and the previous events, we determined coseismic slip distribution by this 2005 Miyagi-Oki earthquake by adopting the seismic waveform inversion method of Yagi et al. (2004) and compared it with that of the previous 1978 Miyagi-Oki earthquake. We performed two cases of the inversions; inversion using only far-field seismograms and that using far-field seismograms and local seismograms simultaneously. Both results show that a large slip occurred near the hypocenter and rupture extended to the westward deeper portion. Considering that the rupture area of the 2005 event partly overlapped with the southeastern part of that of the 1978 event, suggests this result the possibility that plural asperities exist which cause the sequence of Miyagi-Oki earthquakes and that the 2005 event ruptured one of such asperities, although the previous 1978 event ruptured all the asperities at one time.

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An earthquake of Mw 7.2 took place on August 16, 2005 at a plate boundary between the Pacific plate and the North American plate off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture, Northeast Japan. During the Miyagi-Ken-Oki event, we succeeded in recording strong ground motions at six stations in a seismograhic array with an epicentral distance of about 70 km, where we have been operating seven strong-motion seismometers in an aperture of about 500 m since April 2004. The predominant period of the ground motion was shorter than 0.3 s. The peak ground acceleration exceeded 1.7 g at a station where non-linear site response may have occurred during the mainshock. The short-period strong ground motions show a large spatial variation, with up to a ten-fold difference in amplitude even within the array. However, there is a similarity between waveforms registered at different stations for periods longer than 0.4 s. Therefore, the difference in the ground motions may be mainly attributed to the difference in the shallow structure just beneath the stations.

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A preliminary source model composed of asperities for the 2005 off-shore Miyagi prefecture, Japan, earthquake (M_JMA=7.2) was estimated by the empirical Green's function method. The source parameters for two asperities located on the fault plane were determined by comparing synthesized broad-band ground motions with observed ones at several stations. We concluded that the stress parameters of the asperities are very high (90 MPa for Asp-1, 300 MPa for Asp-2) and that these values are nearly equal to those (73 MPa and 29 MPa) calculated by the Earthquake Research Committee (2005) in Japan for the off-shore Miyagi prefecture earthquake that is expected in the near future. However, the location of the asperities is not completely consistent with the expected event.

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A large earthquake with M7.2 occurred on August 16, 2005 along the plate boundary off Miyagi Prefecture. Co- and post-seismic deformations associated with this event were investigated to reveal the causal interplate slips using continuous GPS data and geodetic inversion. The coseismic slip distribution shows good agreement with that estimated by seismic waveform inversions. The major slip area is limited to the southeastern part of the rupture area of the previous 1978 event. The post-seismic slip extended to the southwest of the co-seismic slip area. These distinctive features of both the co- and post-seismic slips might be caused by the existence of the locked plate interface, where seismogenic stress has not released yet, in the northern part of the 1978 rupture area.

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We have been carrying out seafloor geodetic observations at two reference points situated off Miyagi Prefecture, northeastern Japan, using the GPS/Acoustic combination technique. Comparison of position estimates before and after the 2005 Off-Miyagi Prefecture Earthquake revealed a co-seismic crustal movement as large as 10 cm eastward at the site approximately 10 km from the epicenter, while no prominent movement was found at another site located 60 km away from the epicenter. The results at these two sites are consistent with crustal deformation calculated from the rectangular dislocation model on the fault derived from crustal movements observed at GEONET stations on land.

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Taking advantage of the feature that creep around an asperity is necessary for the recurrent rupture of the same small asperity (small repeating earthquakes), we have estimated the spatio-temporal distribution of quasistatic slip (creep) around the 2005 Miyagi-oki earthquake (M=7.2) using the distribution of small repeating earthquakes. The creep was detected mainly outside of the coseismic slip areas for the 2005 Miyagi-oki, 1978 Miyagi-oki (M=7.6) and 2003 Fukushima-oki (M=6.8) earthquakes. The creep rates estimated from the recurrence intervals and slip amounts of small repeating earthquakes for 21 years were almost constant for the areas near the western limit of the interplate earthquakes but they varied temporally in the areas nearer to the Japan trench. The changes in the creep rates before and after the 2005 Miyagi-oki earthquake were not significant with the exception of small slip accelerations in some areas near the Japan trench. These results suggest that the plate boundary around the source area for the 2005 earthquake is still mostly locked.

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Two M=7 interplate earthquakes recently occurred off Miyagi prefecture, northeastern Japan. These belong to a new sequence of earthquake series. The occurrence of this sequence was forewarned by the government, based primarily on a statistical approach utilizing historical records. Such a process, however, does not account for the present on-going status in the assessment. During the stage when stress approaches a critical level, there is a possibility of stress redistribution caused by a quasi-static slip, which will be reflected in a temporal change in seismic activity. Delineating a spatial map of the seismic-activity rate changes in the seismogenic zone off Miyagi prefecture, we found that there was an activation of microseismicity in the rupture zones several months prior to both M=7 earthquakes. This was interpreted as evidence of a preparatory process preceding each M=7 earthquake, during which a quasi-static slip progressed, driving stress redistribution and resulting in stress concentration on asperities of these earthquakes.

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Hypocenters of main shocks and aftershocks of the 1933 M=7.1, 1936 M=7.4, 1937 M=7.1 and 1978 M=7.4 Miyagi-oki earthquakes are relocated using S-P times reported in the Seismological Bulletin of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and those re-read from original smoked-paper seismograms observed at the Mizusawa station of the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ) and the Mukaiyama station of Tohoku University. In order to reduce the error caused by inaccuracies of the arrival times and the small number of seismic observation stations, we determined the hypocenters by using a grid search method that assumed that the events occurred at the boundary between the subducting Pacific plate and the overriding plate. The main shock epicenters of these four earthquakes were determined to be close to each other, while the distributions of their aftershocks seem to disperse on the upper boundary of the Pacific plate. These distributions show that aftershock areas of the 1933, 1936 and 1937 events partly overlap with that of the 1978 event and occupy its easternmost, central and westernmost portions, respectively. This result suggests that the 1933, 1936 and 1937 events possibly ruptured a part of the source area of the 1978 event, i.e., its eastern, central and western portions, respectively.

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We estimate nonlinear site response by comparing site response estimates from the 16 August 2005 Mj=7.2 and 26 May 2003 Mj=7.0 Miyagi-Oki earthquakes with site response estimates from aftershocks of the 2003 event. Site response is solved by a spectral inversion technique to separate source, path, and site components. The constraint motion in the inversion is a regional attenuation model derived from fitting the spectra of data recorded at borehole KiK-net stations in the region and a theoretical source spectrum for each event determined using the same borehole stations. Site response is calculated at the surface of the KiK-net and K-NET stations. In general, the average aftershock site response is larger than for the two mainshocks, especially at a higher frequency. When comparing site response with input ground motion level, the predominant frequency and the site response values tend to decrease as the level of input ground motion increases.

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On March 20, 2005, a large M_JMA7.0 earthquake occurred in the offshore area, west of Fukuoka prefecture, northern Kyushu, Japan. A series of joint observations were carried out by teams from several universities in Japan with the aim of investigating the aftershock activity. Six online telemetered and 17 offline recording seismic stations were installed on land around the aftershock area immediately followed the occurrence of the mainshock. Because aftershocks were located mainly in offshore regions, we also installed 11 ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) just above the aftershock region and its vicinity in order to obtain accurate locations of hypocenters. The OBS observation was carried out from March 27 to April 13, 2005. We further conducted temporary GPS observations in which ten GPS receivers were deployed around the aftershock region. The aftershocks were mainly aligned along an approximately 25-km-long NW-SE trend, and the hypocenters of the main aftershock region were distributed on a nearly vertical plane at depths of 2-16 km. The mainshock was located near the central part of the main aftershock region at a depth of approximately 10 km. The largest aftershock of MJMA5.8 occurred near the southeastern edge of the main aftershock region, and the aftershock region subsequently extended about 5 km in the SE direction as defined by secondary aftershock activity. Enlargement of the aftershock region did not occur after the peak in aftershock activity, and the aftershock activity gradually declined. The distribution of hypocenters and seismogenic stress as defined by aftershocks suggest that the 2005 West Off Fukuoka Prefecture Earthquake occurred on the fault that is the NW extension of the Kego fault, which extends NW-SE through the Fukuoka metropolitan area, and that the largest aftershock occurred at the northwestern tip of the Kego fault.

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The 2005West Off Fukuoka Prefecture Earthquake (Mj=7.0) occurred on March 20, 2005 in the northern part of Kyushu, Japan. To study the aftershock activity, we deployed eleven pop-up type ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs), sixteen locally recorded temporary stations, and eight telemetered temporary stations in and around the epicenter region. We combined data from these stations and permanent stations located around the aftershock area, and determined the hypocenter of the mainshock and aftershocks. The mainshock was in the northwestern central part of the aftershock region, at a depth of 9.5 km. The mainshock was on a left-lateral strike-slip fault. Aftershocks were located in a depth range of 1-16 km and laterally extend for about 25 km in a NW-SE direction. We found that the aftershocks fell into four groups. This might be due to the heterogeneous structure in the source region. In the group that includes the mainshock, we estimated two fault planes bordering on the depth of the mainshock. There are 10-degree differences in both strike and dip angles between the lower and upper planes. From the aftershock distribution and the focal mechanisms, the rupture first propagated downward, and then propagated upward.

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We investigated the spatial distribution of static stress drops of the aftershocks of the 2005 West Off Fukuoka Prefecture earthquake, with the aim of assessing the possibility that another earthquake will occur on the SE extension of the earthquake fault. The waveforms from six temporary online telemetry stations installed in and around the aftershock region were measured. Small stress drops were estimated for the aftershocks that occurred relatively distant from the SE and NE ends of the earthquake fault. Conversely, the aftershocks that occurred around the SE end of aftershock region are characterized by large stress drops. These results imply the possibility of a stress concentration at the SE edge of the main shock fault.

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We constructed a temporary GPS network around the aftershock area of the 2005West Off Fukuoka Prefecture Earthquake (M7.0) in order to investigate the characteristics of its postseismic deformation. Our GPS network data, as well as the GEONET data, were analyzed using Bernese GPS software. We detected notable postseismic deformation in horizontal components close to the fault plane. The observed maximum displacement was 5.6 cm at the GNKI site on Genkaijima Island. A logarithmic law was adapted to the coordinate time series data, revealing decay times from 2 to 23 days, similar to those obtained for the 2003 Tokachi-oki Earthquake (M8.0). The amount of postseismic slips on the fault was assessed using the coseismic fault model proposed by the Geographical Survey Institute (GSI). We derived an optimum fault model of postseismic slip on the shallow (less than 3 km depth) portion of the fault. Our findings indicate that postseismic slip occurred only in shallow parts of the coseismic fault.

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On March 20, 2005 theWest off Fukuoka Prefecture earthquake (magnitude of 7.0 on the JMA scale) occurred in southeastern Japan. The earthquake fault was a left-lateral strike-slip having a nearly vertical fault plane and a strike in the WNW-ESE direction. The largest aftershock with a magnitude of 5.8 (JMA) followed 1 month later. To gain more detailed aftershock data, several teams from different Japanese universities jointly installed a number of temporary seismic stations and positioned Ocean Bottom Seismometers (OBSs) immediately above the focal area. Double-difference tomography was used to estimate the three-dimensional (3D) (Zhang and Thurber, 2003) velocity structures in and around the focal area based on the travel time data collected during seismic observations. The high-velocity regions estimated by the inversion are located on the edge of the aftershock area and on the shallow part of asperity, as inferred from the slip distribution. Conversely, the Vp/Vs ratio is not always as high as that found at the location of the asperity. This finding suggests that the construction of the medium is not uniformly elastic but complex, with different relations between elastic constants and strength.

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Spatial distribution of S-wave scatterers in the SE part of the focal area of the 2005 West Off Fukuoka Prefecture Earthquake (M = 7.0) has been estimated using dense seismic array data. Waveforms of 22 natural earthquakes were analyzed in a frequency range of 16-24 Hz. It is difficult to estimate the inhomogeneous structure in this wavelength range with ordinary travel time tomography despite the importance of this parameter for understanding the earthquake-generating process. After filtering and gain recovery in the coda part, observed waveforms were semblance-enhanced slant-stacked into various directions from the array. This was followed by diffraction curve summation in order to image the scatterer distribution. The spatial distribution of scatterers thus imaged revealed that higher strengths were distributed at the SE-extension of the fault plane of the event, which corresponds to a region where the rupture process of the main shock stopped.

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Crustal shear wave polarization anisotropy is caused by the alignment of vertical microcracks. Leading shear wave polarization directions (LSPDs) are presumed to be consistent with the maximum horizontal compressional axis in many cases. We analyzed shear wave polarization anisotropy in and around the focal region of the 2005 West off Fukuoka Prefecture earthquake. Almost all of the LSPDs are oriented in the E-W direction, which is consistent with the maximum horizontal compressional axis inferred from the mechanism of the main shock. These E-to W-oriented LSPDs are caused by the alignment of stress-induced microcracks. Crack densities at most stations are estimated to be 0.02. Little spacial stress variation around focal region is suspected.

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The 2005 West Off Fukuoka Prefecture earthquake caused serious damage to and on Genkai Island as well as to downtown Fukuoka City. There were no strong motion instruments on the island, therefore no one knows how the strong ground motion occurred during the mainshock. The ground motion simulation on Genkai Island is very important to our understanding of earthquake damage at the near-source region. We have conducted an aftershock observation on the island in order to verify site amplification due to steep topography and to record aftershocks for reproducing ground motion during the mainshock by the empirical Green's function method. The observed records of aftershocks show small variations in the input motions in the island, indicating that the amplification due to the topography seems to be small below 2 Hz. We first estimated the strong motion generation area for the mainshock using the observation records at stations surrounding the source region. We then carried out broadband ground motion simulation on Genkai Island by using the aftershock records as empirical Green's functions. The simulated ground velocities exceed 1 m/s with a dominant period of 1-2 s due to the forward rupture directivity, and the instrumental seismic intensity reaches 6.6.

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