The national target for PV capacity in Japan is 4. 82, GW in 2010, and several PV Roadmaps until 2030 are also described. To achieve the target, several support programs, such as subsidization to capital cost, Green Credit by the Green Power Certification System, buy-back under the Renewable Portfolio Standard low, have been already introduced. Carbon tax is still under consideration, but there are several analyses about possible carbon tax.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze PV system sales price and subsidy through buy-back which make photovoltaics cost-competitive with other energy technologies and make the target for PV capacity achievable by 2030 in Japan under an expected carbon tax. For the analysis energy system of Japan is modeled by using MARKAL.
Based on the results of analysis, under 6000, JPY/t-C carbon tax, photovoltaics needs subsidy for a while even if we taking both fuel savings and Green Credit into account. For attaining the national target for PV capacity in 2010, photovoltaics needs more expensive buy-back than that in present, but after 2010 necessary buy-back decreases gradually. If 120, JPY/W PV system sales price is attained by 2030, photovoltaics becomes cost-competitive without any supports. Subsidy through buy-back becomes almost unnecessary in 2030, if we can reduce it less than 170, JPY/W. The total necessary buy-back meets peak in 2025. It is much more than ongoing subsidy to capital cost of PV systems, but annual revenue from the assumed carbon tax can finance the annual total necessary buy-back. This means if photovoltaics can attain the targeted PV system sales price, we should support it for a while by spending carbon tax revenue effectively and efficiently.
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