Local disaster management requires precise, reality-based assessments of shelter occupancy rates. Moving from macro to micro analysis, this study proposes an estimation model that incorporates a 1-kilometer evacuation constraint, site-specific conditions, and future demographic shifts. An empirical study of Omaezaki City, Shizuoka, found a theoretically sufficient average occupancy rate of 102.5 ％, while revealing significant disparities among individual facilities. This methodology can contribute to the formulation of effective, practical disaster-prevention plans.

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