選挙研究
Online ISSN : 1884-0353
Print ISSN : 0912-3512
12 巻
選択された号の論文の20件中1~20を表示しています
  • 谷 聖美
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 4-15,295
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    No one could deny the significance of election in modern democracy. Parliamentary elections take a winning party or a winning coalition of parties to power. As Giovanni Sartori says, party government usually understood means that the party governs, that the governing function is actually seized and monopolized by the winning party or by a coalition of parties. But the adverb actually is misleading because to be nominally in charge of government and policy-making is insufficient to be the de facto policy-maker. The question of whether the party in office resides as master, prisoner, agent, or spectator still remaine to be answered. This paper is a theoretical attempt to answer the question of how election and party government matters in policy-making process.
    First, this paper argues about the influence of representative organizations in policy-making process. A parliamentary institution has many rules of legislative game, and reduces the leeway of the ruling party. The behavior of parliamentary members cannot be predicted completely according to the result of an election; Some tend to take the will and demand of their constituency into serious consideration; Some regard their own opinions or decisions by their parties as more important.
    Then come questions about the policy-making ability of a party. The grip of a winning party on policy-making process depends on the extent of how policies are specified and program-oriented, the number of party members assignable to key governmental positions, and many other factors. Bureaucrats and interest groups may overshadow the ruling party.
    Any election does not dominate the following policy-making process completely. More attention should be paid to the relationship between election and policy outcome. The recent work of the European Consortium for Political Research provides us with a great possiblity of examining this relationship empirically.
  • 吉野 孝
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 16-27,294
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    Just as the American political parties are in a state of flux, the American party scholarship is in a state of transition. The debate on the condition of the American parties, decline or resurgence, has not yet been settled, and the traditional party theories cannot explain well these conradicting aspects of the American party politics today. Among many attempts to solve the puzzle and fill the gulf between party theories and party realities, the most notable is John H. Aldrich's application of a rational-choice-based new institutionalist approach to the study of the American party politics.
    His central argument is that the American parties are highly “endogenous institutions, ” and it is the office-seekers who create parties and it is they who alter the forms of parties to resolve problems that confront them. The old form of parties collapsed in the 1960s, and the new form of parties has emerged. The new form is designed to advance the needs and interests of ambitious politicians. The emergence of this “candidate-centered” parties made irrelevant the traditional Key-Sorauf “tripod” view of paries, and a new study paradigm is necessary for the new institutional design for parties.
    Although his approach and theorizing have several problems, his contributions to the American party scholarship include: (1) a formulation of a new theoretical framework to understand the contemporary American party politics, (2) an emphasis of the importance of the party in government as a research focus and the relationship between office-holder's policy preference and his recruitment, and (3) a distinction between two types of the party dynamics in the American party history. To advance the American party scholarship, it is desirable to study the national and state party apparatus from the rational-choice-based new institutionalist approach, and relate them to the new form of parties.
  • 安野 智子, 池田 謙一
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 28-40,293
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    By focusing on a social psychological point of view, this article provides reviews of recent and important findings in the field of voting behavior.
    First, as a premise for the development of research in the 90s, the authors briefly summarize several approaches in the voting behavior study, such as ideological, economical, and cognitive psychological approaches.
    Second, it was argued that studies in the 90s are largely affected by the development of cognitive psychology, for the earliest instances, Lau and Sears (Eds.) (1986) and Graber (1984). The focuses of research are dispersed on schematic information processing or use of heuristics by the voters. Usually the researchers emphasize the reasoning process of voters which is very different from the point of view by Converse' famous idea of innocent voter (1964).
    Third, interest in the impact of mass media has revived, partly due to huge changes in the media environment and partly due to the interest in the information processing aspect of news reception. Several researchers pursued to elucidate how the social realities of the Presidential elections are formed by using multimethod approach (experiment, focused-group interview, depth interview, social survey, and news content analysis).
    Fourth, it is notable that social network approach has come into the field. This approach was inaugurated by Huckfeldt (1986) and is differentiated from the traditional two-step flow type studies in that it focuses on the information environment which is formed by important others surrounding each voter.
    Fifth, alternative cognitive approach is found in the study of public opinion such as the “spiral of silence” hypothesis and the “third person effect” hypothesis.
    The authors tried to show how promising all the areas in the field is, and also to show how the areas are intertwined with each other.
  • 三宅 一郎
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 41-58,292
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    Attitudes toward foreign countries seems to be shaped by three main factors: respect for Western cultures, cold war mentality and geographical location. From the beginning to the end respect for Western cultures is of most importance. Throughout Cold War period, cold war mentality had a powerful relationship with attitudes toward foreign countries, but its power was declining in the last decade of Cold War period. We suggested that after Cold War was over geographical location, Far East Asia for instance, has replaced Cold War mentality. On the bases of data from The Jiji Survey conducted monthly since 1960, this article attempts to show the changing process of Japanese attitudes toward foreign countries.
  • 山田 真裕
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 59-70,292
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    Under the reign of the Liberal Democratic Party (the LDP) in Japan, new parties have formed, made sensations and threatened the political power of the LDP. These parties include the Shin-Jiyuu-Club (the NLC) introduced in the 1976 general election, and Shinseito, Shinto Sakigake, and Nihon Shinto introduced in the 1993 general election. We want to explore the causes of the rise of these new parties. For this purpose, we analyzed JABISS, Meisuikyo, and JESII data, and compared the results.
    In this article, we indicate that 1) The rise of the NLC in 1976 depended upon conservative voters in urban area. 2) On the other hand, the rise of the three new parties in 1993 was supported more broadly both socio-economically and ideologically. 3) A large ratio of the votes for the new parties were party-oriented despite the lack of support for these parties. 4) The success of these parties was due to citizens looking for political reform. Moreover, when we compared the new parties in 1993 each other, we saw that Nihon Shinto had the least candidate-oriented votes among them. This fact implies that Nihon Shinto was most favored in the new party sensations.
  • 蒲島 郁夫, 石生 義人, 森 裕城
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 71-87,291
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    Utilizing a national survey of eligible voters, this paper examines voting behavior during the 1993 general election with a focus on three new political parties: the Shinsei Party, the Japan New Party, and the Sakigake Party. We examined voters in districts with new party candidates separately from voters in districts without new party candidates. Voting behavior differed depending on whether or not voters had a choice to vote for a new party candidate. First, we found that people who voted for the LDP in 1990 were more likely to vote for the LDP again in 1993 if they voted in districts without a new party candidate. If they voted in districts with a new party candidate, they were less likely to vote for the LDP. This same tendency held true for JSP voters. Second, using a multinomial logistic regression we examined voters in districts with a new party candidates. We found that, when compared with LDP voters, new party voters had more favorable opinions toward new parties, their candidates, and opposition parties (excluding the JSP). Moreover, new party voters had less favorable opinions toward the LDP and its candidates, saw a stronger need for power changes, were more progressive, were more politically dissatisfied, and were less likely to be members of candidate support groups. We also found that new party voters were moderate in terms of ideology, political dissatisfaction desiring power changes. In other words although, new party voters felt stronger than LDP voters about changing the status quo, new party voters did not seek the drastic changes sought by voters of other opposition parties. In terms of socio-economic characteristics, new party voters were not significantly different from LDP voters.
  • 早川 昌範, 吉崎 輝美
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 88-97,291
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    The aim of this study is to examine the characteristics of political attitudes, voting intention and voting behavior by using two classification systems, and then also to compare those classification systems. The two classification systems used were 1) classified samples focusing on Independents, and 2) classified samples focusing on party identifiers. The research was conducted during the end of October 1995 with 515 samples, using questionnaires.
    We analyzed responses to 30 items on political attitudes by factor analysis, and extracted 8 factors: ego involvement in politics, political estrangement, political distrust, political efficacy, attitudes towards the cabinet, an optimistic perspective of politics, national vs. international and conservative vs. progressive, respectively. Similar factors were found in other research carried out before 1993.
    We analyzed responses to the 8 political attitude factors by ANOVA among 3 different groups (strong independents, not so strong independents, party identifiers), which were classified by two classification systems. Also we analyzed responses to voting intention and voting behavior among 3 groups by a log-linear model. There were significant differences among 3 groups, particularly between strong and not so strong independents in political attitudes and voting intention. In addition, there were significant differences between the party identifiers and the two independent groups in political behavior.
    Closer examination of measuring party identification and a further comparison of the two classification systems used in this study might be beneficial.
  • 永山 正男
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 98-109,290
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    I have estimated the population under the single election system of the Meiji era in Japan, and, making use of the number of electors in each constituency and its poll, made a fundamental analysis of this election system on the constituency basis. The points I have made are:
    1. At the time of the enactment of the system, the actual population of each constituency was in most cases large enough to clear the standard. The ratio of the population of the biggest constituency to that of smallest was less than 2, namely 1.97, with the exception of 6 constituencies.
    2. The total population had greatly increased by the 31st year of the Meiji era and the ratio mentioned above had reached 6.0, with the exception of island constituencies. The system itself was in urgent need of some change to secure ‘fairness’.
    3. Since the system was a selective one, the ratio of the number of electors in the biggest constituency to that of the smallest was 88.2 and there was no ‘fairness’ in this sense from the beginning.
    4. At the fifth general election, carried out in the 31st year of the Meiji era, the total number of electors was almost the same as the first.
    5. The system admitted new electors through the introduction of voting rights by ‘business tax’ in contract to the existing right by ‘land tax’. In constituencies with large numbers of ‘new’ electors, however, abstention became common. In most constituencies with much smaller numbers, it proved that they were no match for the landowners, and this very fact provided an objective basis for the ‘city constituency movement’.
    This analysis is but the first step and there is still a lot to be done. What is of necessity is to organize the data used here with achievements in other disciplines such as geography and to classify constituencies. My plan is to define what relations there were between the types of constituencies and various other data such as election results, so as to find how effective the Meiji election system was.
  • 小栗 勝也
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 110-121,289
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    Japan has recently adopted a new system for the general election of the Lower House, combining 300 single-member constituencies and 200 proportional representation seats. The new system has been expected to bring about desirable policy-centered elections.
    No matter what systems are put into practice, however, the expected results will not be brought about unless those who make use of the reformed electoral system have no or little ability of making full use of the system. What dose matter is the voters' policy-centered choice.
    In prewar Japan, many elections were conducted under the single-member constituency system. Among them was a remarkable election held in 1924. The general election was held just after the then leading political party “Seiyûkai” was disrupted and it caused the voters remarkable traits. That is why this paper is to explore the voter's attitudes toward the political reorganization and under the single-member constituency system in 1924.
    Interestingly enough, the analysis of the voters' attitudes tells that they followed their old convention, although the party they had supported was broken up and they faced the new situations. In other words, they did not vote as individuals, but just as groups.
  • 網中 政機
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 122-133,288
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    In Japan, new electoral system is introduced in The House of Representative, but the procedure of reapportionment and redistricting follow the principles of former system. Under non-transferable single voting system, this problem transforms the apportionment into the districting in quality. For something unsatisfactory of legislative procedure, Equality of the franchise is not realizable.
    By contrast with this, the redistricting procedure renewed after apportionment revolution in 1964 in United states of America. Now that the equal-population principle has become established constitutional doctrine for state legislative representation and congressional districting, the relationship of representative government should be examined anew.
    This paper seeks and suggest to legislative procedures to ensure “strict and fair” redistricting through states constitutions in America.
  • 葉山 明
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 134-144,288
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    In 1990, an African American was voted into a federal office in Louisiana for the first time since 1874. In 1992, an additional African American was elected. What happened in Louisiana in the 1990s?
    In an attempt to answer the question, this paper analyzes the federal Voting Rights Act (VRA) and argues that its 1982 amendment triggered many states including Louisiana to create as many black majority districts as possible even at the sacrifice of their compactness. The federal judiciary has ruled recently, however, that racial gerrymandering is contrary to the VRA and to the U. S. Constitution, thereby discrediting most black majority districts. The paper concludes with a discussion of some alternative strategies for black political empowerment.
  • 大曲 薫
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 145-157,287
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    During the past decade, the U. S. Congress has considered many proposals for campaign finance reform. One of the most prominent issues raised by contemporary campaign practices is the contribution of political action committees (PACs) and the substantial reliance of federal election candidates on PACs as a source of funding. The Congress watchdog body, Common Cause, has accused of PACs for its undue influence over the electoral process and the public policy.
    This article summarizes the issues of campaign finance reform focusing on PACs and analyzes the former Common Cause's president Wertheimer's reform proposal. His proposal intends to curtail the influence of special-interest money, to create a competitive electoral process and to help restore the public confidence in the U. S. political system. We can characterize it as a neo-progressive grass-roots model. This grass-roots model disregards the explosion of groups and the new pluralism of the U. S. political system beginning 1970s, so can't see the positive role of PACs in the U. S. political system. The real reform proposal must take into account the positive role of PACs and its relation to the political party seriously. In the last section, this article summarizes the professor Sabato's another reform proposal characterized as a party-centered model and analyzes its merits and implications for the future of the U. S. campaign finance reform.
  • 大山 礼子
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 158-168,287
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    Direct elections of the Presidency after the constitutional amendment of 1962 had the effects of not only developing bipolarisation between Left and Right, but also changing campaigning styles. Presidential candidates are being forced to mediatise their candidacy in a massive scale.
    As money becomes more important to the pursuit of election campaign, equality of opportunity declined. Since 1988, France has introduced a set of legal restrictions on campaign funds. Corporate contributions are banned by the 1995 legislation. In 1995 election, campaign expenditure is limited to 90 millions of francs (or 120 millions for the two candidates presenting the second round). Candidates must submit a statement of income and expenditure to the Consutitutional Council, which has a power to examine, correct or reject it.
    The influence of television has been increased from election to election. The governing body of broadcasting, Conseil supérieur de l'audiovisuel, acts as a watchdog during election time and ensures that all candidates have equal access to television and radio channels.
  • 渡邊 啓貴
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 169-183,286
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    In May 1995, Jaques Chirac (Rassemblement Pour la République, neo-Gaulliste party) was elected French President. This article analyses the processes and Issues which conditioned the outcome of the Presidential Election.
    First, Chirac's victory resulted from the prompt decline of Balladur's popularity and Chirac's campaign strategy. The former was been pushed by student's reluctance to Balladur's plan to reform the higher education system, an affaire of his government's illegal wiretap and a suspicion for his illegal income. The latter led the electorate to perceive Chirac as reliable President in terms of dynamism and change.
    Second, Lionel Jospin (socialist candidate, former secretary general of the French Socialist Party) put up a good fight beyond expectation. In appearence, a confrontation is generally held to reinforce political polarisation, with French tendencies to a multiparty system resolving into a competition between the left and the right. In this context, the extreme-right Front National was found to be an influential political party with over 15% of votes.
    Third, voters demanded “change” and the most urgent political problem is a solution for unemployment and social unfairness. In what concerned the methodology for how to solve these problems, there were no traditional fierce conflicts like disputes about ideology and economic systems. This difference in stance was seen in individual problems including the period of Presidential tenure, reopening of nuclear tests, and the draft period. This presidential election was conducted in a situation where qualitative changes concerning debates among candidates was seen.
  • 増田 正
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 184-195,285
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    In France, electoral studies have been analyzed as “géographie des élections”, which is mainly charted the results of elections in terms of left-right ideology. Although we, of course, can find papers using the multi-valuable analysis of the voting behavior of France, such are not seen a lot. That may be the reason why French academic associations -e. g., AFSP- are strongly autonomous to others.
    In this paper, I introduced the multi-regressional analysis and path analysis into analyzing voting behavior of France. The main focus is on the electoral mobilization of local and regional political leaders in 1995 French Presidential Election. Using valuables are (1) rating of the first ballot of J. Chirac, (2) rating of the second ballot (ballotage) of J. Chirac, (3) party (RPR or not) and ideology (conservative or not) of mayor, (4) party and ideology of president of “conseil géneral” at the department, (5) party and ideology of president of “consel régional” at the region.
    In short, as the result of these statisitacal analysis, the mobilization of mayors is the greatest of all kinds of local and regional leaders in case of votings of J. Chirac. Paths (3) to (1) and (3) to (2) are both indicated plus (+) partial correlation coefficients.
    Except the domain of the political history, the voting behavior of modern France has not been studied enough yet. As the second step, the more sophistication of models are strongly required.
  • 朴 賛郁, 金 亨俊, 河村 和徳, 孫 煕斗, 蘇 淳昌
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 196-215,284
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    The objective of this study is to systematically analyze the results of the 15th Korean National Assembly election, using aggregation data and adopting the electoral district as a main unit of analysis. First, the effects of the electoral system are explored. Then, the variations in voter turnout and party votes among the districts are investigated in the multivariate context of analysis.
    The electoral system for the national legislature has been revised several times apparently in a fair direction. In actuality, however, the system is not substan-tially fair in that the system favors larger parties. The system has consistently raised an entry barrier against new political forces, and become an object of controversy concerning the fairness of representation.
    The analysis has shown that the rate of voter turnout in a district hinges largely on the urbanization level of the district: cetris paribus, the more urbanized a district is, the higher the voter turnout is. The relative composition of age groups is the second most important factor for explaining a district's voter turnout. A greater proportion of voters in their fifties means a higher rate of voter turn in an electoral district.
    The district-level analysis in this study has also vindicated that a party's electoral showing is greatly determined by the district's region: regional voting was more pervasive in the 15th National Assembly election than in the previous one. But the urban-rural division of partisan support, usually salient in previous elections, has almost disappeared. There is no evidence that policy issues or social cleavage factors other than regionalism have significantly influenced voters' party support.
    In brief, the recent election has suggested no clear dealigning or realigning tendencies in Korean party or electoral politics. The election can be characterized as a normal or maintaining election.
  • 孫 煕斗
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 216-230,283
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    Since the First Republic collapsed down because of the corrupted election scandal in 1960, how to manage elections has become one of the main political issues in Korea. Since then, the Constitutional Law of Korea became to include an independent chapter for the election management system in order to secure the fairness of election management, and it seems to be a very rare case in another countries.
    This paper dealt with the election management system of Korea, reviewing how the system was practiced in the 15th National Assembly Election in 1996. The 15th Election was the first general election for the National Assembly since the new election law was established in 1994. Many Koreans believed that the new election law would realize a new election culture in Korea, i. e. fair and lawful, because it contains articles for regulating election related illegal activities more strictly and for reinforcing authority of the Election Management Commission more strongly than ever before. Accordingly, it was one of the most important issues during the 15th Election whether the new election management system would be successful or not.
    Reviewing the election, this paper can point out two things. On the one hand, it can be hardly said that the new system achieved its original goals. There still remain a lot of problems in the system itself. Above all, the effect of institutional change was very limited. This might confirm that the change of election culture mainly relies on the human will, not on the institution. On the other hand, it's very hopeful that Korean people found out the fact that the elec tion culture can change gradually as the related parties of election such as candidates, political parties and voters realize what are the long but substantial steps for the fair competition. In addition, not less importantly, the continuous effort of the EMC is needed, along with the institutional change.
  • 蘇 淳昌
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 231-247,282
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    This study is to analyze voting behavior through the survey data on the Korean Local Election in 1995. Firstly, how does the electorate support the party? Secondly, how much does the voter's region (the region where the voter comes from), have an important effect upon voting behavior?
    The results of analysis are as follows.
    First, party voting is investigated with multivariate analyses. Voting behavior is greatly determined by social characteristics, in particular the voter's region, which is confirmed with high explanation by the multivariate analysis. To put it concretely, the Democratic Liberal Party is supported by the voter's of Pusan, Kyungnam and Taegu, Kyungbuk, while the Democratic Party is supported by the voters of Kwangju, Junla. Moreover, political ideology, political interest, and economic evaluation are important variables when trying to understand Korean voting behavior.
    Therefore, the region where the voter comes from, is the most important variable in party selection. Regionalism is more persuasive to explain the Korean Local Election in 1995.
    Second, when comparing regional voter turnout, the voters of the Kwangju-Junla area vote for the Democratic Party, while voters of the Pusan-Kyungnam and Taegu-Kyungbuk area vote very intensively for the Democratic Liberal Party in very high levels. It has been certificated that the regionalism of the voters in the Kwangju-Junla area are stronger than that of voters in the Pusan-Kyungnam and Taegu-Kyungbuk area.
    Third, the voters of the Pusan-Kyungnam and Taegu-Kyungbuk area supporting the Democratic Liberal Party vote against the opposing party (the Democratic Party), more than the voters of the Kwangju-Junla area who support the Democratic Party vote against the opposite party (the Democratic Liberal Party).
    In brief, through the results of analysis, the Korean Local Election in 1995, can be characterized as regionalism voting.
  • 西平 重喜
    1997 年 12 巻 p. 248-256
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 1997 年 12 巻 p. 258-271
    発行日: 1997/02/28
    公開日: 2009/01/22
    ジャーナル フリー
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