One of the important features of the 2006 Taipei City mayoral election is that there were three likely candidates. Each of them represented one of the major parties. The conventional wisdom states that the electorate may vote for their second preferred candidate if their most favorite one is not likely to win. However, scholars have seldom empirically examined how individuals rank their alternatives or candidates. We consider people's voting intention as a preference ordering and manage to examine its determinants. We set up choice-specific variables, such as winner anticipation, partisanship, and candidate evaluations, and individual-specific variables, such as ethnic background and nation identity, to account for people's preference ordering. Appling conditional logit model to a pre-election poll, we find that people rank their preferences according to their evaluations on candidates in order. Voter's winner anticipation and party identification prevailed in our model but they affect the voter's choice in different ways.
Korea is important not only for supplementing one of the important missing links in the studies on mixed-member system in general, the political consequences of its SMD plural tier on party system in particular, but also for deepening our understanding of linkage failure in Duverger's law between the district and national levels. In the previous studies with the twotier model, it is impossible to tell where linkage failure lies in. With the introduction of the three-tier model with the second tier “region” in-between, it is only possible to distinguish the intra-regional linkage failure from the inter-regional linkage failure. Korea is best fit with such a model because there are significant differences in the patterns of the combination of candidates' party labels in different regions even when there are similarities in the number of candidates and how strong they are. In that case, intra-regional linkage is high while inter-regional linkage is low, resulting in linkage failure when aggregated at the national level.
The purpose of this paper is to compare the political culture of Korea and Japan with particular reference to how the cultural characteristics affect the stability of the two political systems. The two countries are similar in many respects, including the geographical location, the historical background, the language structure, and even the DNA structure. Culturally, they have the common cultural heritage of Confucianism and Buddhism. More importantly and more relevantly, the two countries share the same political experiences as both of them were under the U.S. military government right after the World War Two, and were forced to embrace the Western democratic political system. This external imposition of the Western liberal democracy upon the two countries, of course, has resulted in many difficulties for the two political systems. Both of them are still in the process of internalizing the liberal democratic values and reconciling them with their traditional values. This struggle is manifested by the fact that the two countries have been almost constantly engaged in the discussion of political reforms and Constitutional amendments. Yet there are some important differences in the way Korea and Japan have tackled this problem of internalizing the Western democracy. Korea has gone through a series of political upheaval, thus creating political instability frequently, while Japan has been able to maintain political stability in relative terms. The focus of this paper is to explain this cross-national difference in terms of the characteristics of the two countries' political culture. More specifically, the paper examines several cultural variables that are related to the democratic political process, such as satisfaction with political system, fairness of electoral process, responsiveness of political parties and legislators, necessity for political parties, support for political parties, and party identification. In general, Japanese voters score higher than Korean voters in these cultural traits. It can be inferred from this finding that these cultural differences are responsible, at least partially, for the relative stability of the Japanese political system visavis the Korean political system.