Material requirements in the long-term fuel cycle, such as the cumulative demand for natural U and separative work, are analyzed under two different growth-rates anticipated for nuclear generating capacity in Japan. In this second report, the analysis still covers only a simple system consisting of light water reactors and fast breeders, but the breeding characteristics of the fast reactors are changed parametrically, and the timing of the first FBR installation also is varied in the range of 1986-1996 and beyond.
The cumulative demand for natural U prior to attainment of the self-suppporting Pu breeding cycle is empirically represented by a simple function of breeder characteristics. To give an indication of the possible fuel saving with a reduced projection of the nuclear installations, a typical case is analyzed, in which the anticipated capacity of such installations is toned down after the year 2000.
The importance of the time delay in commencing re-use of discharged Pu is discussed. The delay exerts a large influence on the material requirements, if the installation capacity is assumed to grow rapidly. A simple consideration is presented concerning the limitation on the growth-rate of breeder capacity imposed as a result of this time delay.
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