A mathematical formulation was developed to describe the concept of import premium method, which can quantify a security effect of demand reduction of imports by introducing the alternative before its supply disruption (or variation) may happen.
Next, by using this formula, a security value of plutonium use (especially, fast breeder reactor), defined as a contributor to reduction of possibilities of disruption (or variation) of natural uranium supply was estimated.
From these studies, it is concluded that although the formula proposed here is simplified, it may be available for assessing an energy security if only we prepare the data concerning future motions of supply and demand curves.
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