Several countries including Japan are planning to select a site for the high-level radioactive waste disposal by step by step approach. Among the site selection phases, the initial site investigation phase is considered to have greater uncertainty due to the limited amount of site investigations.
JNC held an international workshop on October 22-24,2003 to discuss the goal of modeling at this phase, the level of uncertainty and the investigation methods useful to reduce uncertainties. This paper presents a summary of discussion during the international workshop.
The goal of modeling at this phase differs between the crystalline rocks and sedimentary rocks, since the former tends to have greater degree of heterogeneities due to fractures/faults and require more boreholes and widely exposed outcrops which are generally not available, whereas the latter is more homogeneous and requires less understanding of geologic structures in various scales. The goal for modeling the crystalline rocks at this phase is to understand the site rather than to perform the rigorous safety assessment. The regional scale and the site scale are more reasonably modeled than the block scale at this phase, because the outcrops and boreholes required to model the block scale are generally limited. However, Sweden has relatively abundant outcrops and aims at the block scale, as well. On the other hand, the goal for modeling the sedimentary rocks could be safety assessment, since these rocks are relatively homogeneous and the models for all scales could be constructed with greater confidence.
Uncertainties can be divided into the expected uncertainties and the unexpected uncertainties. An example for the former is the fracture network in the block scale and an example for the latter is the compartments in the crystalline rocks. Reduction in uncertainties can be achieved not only by increased amount of investigations but also by demonstrating that the hypothesis is supported by the multiple-lines of evidence. In order to reduce the unexpected uncertainties,1) demonstrating the validity of the concept through iterations of prediction and confirmation,2) collecting baseline data as much as possible and carefully analyzing the trend of data, are also useful.
There is no single investigation method that can drastically reduce uncertainties and it is important to obtain the multiple-lines of evidence based on the various methods. However, examples of useful methods to reduce uncertainties are: flow logging and fluid logging to measure the transmissivity of the individual fractures, tracer experiments to derive flow porosity, and 3D seismic method to derive geologic structure in the sedimentary rocks.
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