When one looks at the university marketplace, the percentage of active high school students applying to junior colleges and four-year institutions and the population of potential entrants in that age bracket are the important figures. The latter continues to decrease. As long as the university market considers its prime customers to be Japanese young people this figure will not get any larger.
The top position in national universities is that of president, a teacher become CEO. The majority of education organizations which include a private university are run by either someone from a subsequent generation of the founder or someone from the faculty. Universities, almost without exception, suffer the difficulty of having CEOs with insufficient management ability.
Up to now the tacit understanding has been that university teachers divide their time between research, education, and administrative duties/service to society on a ratio of 7 : 2 : 1, but, according to Masayoshi Kinukawa, if that ratio is not altered to 2 : 7 : 1 so that education receives by far the greatest emphasis universities will not continue to exist. Universities which do not make public information concerning the percentage of entrants who ultimately declined and their dropout rate, information sufficient to assess a university success, will sooner or later be singled out for criticism.
Universities which continue to maintain high standards will not suffer a serious loss of students who select them as their first choice. However, universities which have difficulty maintaining such standards will-so much so that their situation will become hopeless. Henceforth universities will be judged on the basis of the number of students who select them as their first choice, not just on their number of applicants. A management strategy which contributes to increasing the former is essential.
In 2010 the number of applicants will fall below the number of allotted places for half of all private universities. For one-fourth of them, even if the number of applicants exceeds that of allotted places, with only 50% to 60% of the applicants actually entering (and not going elsewhere) it will be very difficult to fill all of the allotted places. The top one-fourth will be the private universities with a high probability of having all of their allotted places filled. That is to say, only 300 of all the national, public, and private universities will be able to maintain a mere a functioning student selection process.
When a majority of universities reach the point where they are no longer able to maintain a functioning student selection process, entrance examination fees will either plummet to a very small figure or disappear altogether. It is believed that whether a university can set an entrance examination fee or not will become one of the criteria by which society evaluates universities.
Up to now it has been thought that the concept of management is not really applicable to the university situation. However, only universities which are able to set up an effective management strategy and make appropriate decisions swiftly will survive.
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