[Summary]
Our hospital is an acute care hospital with a total of 373 beds, focusing on pediatric and perinatal medical care. In recent years, our hospital has assumed a more pivotal role as pediatric, obstetrics and gynaecology departments in nearby acute care hospitals have been closed.
[Objective]
As part of our hospital's medical health care plan, a forecast was made regarding the number of patients likely to visit our hospital, taking into account the effects of hospital relocations and demographic shifts.
[Method]
Using the grid square method, we designed a patient map according to the respective departments visited by patients, based on current addresses obtained from patients who have received treatment at our hospital.
Separately from this, by applying the Huff model, we made forecasts regarding the impact that other large scale hospital relocations would have on our hospital's patient numbers.
In addition, we also made forecasts regarding future patient trends based on population estimates in secondary medical care areas.
[Result]
By the use of the grid square method, the making of the document which it was easy to do of it being understood was possible intuitively about the trend of the outpatient.
In addition, a near result was provided about the prediction by the Hff model practically.
[Conclusion]
By applying the Huff model, it is possible to make short term forecasts on changes in patient consultation trends, caused by such factors as hospital relocations in medical care regions.
In the absence of such major occurrences, it is possible to offer useful materials to assist with regional health care planning initiatives, taking into consideration demographic trends.
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